Win rate
50.9%
29 W / 28 L
Total PnL
$409
realized $-908 · unrealized $1,317
Portfolio
$1,317
volume $17,720
Predictions
107
6.6/day · avg $166
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 46% +$378
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 50¢ | 34¢ | +$1 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 30¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68¢ | 66¢ | +$92 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 97¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 92¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | No | 72¢ | 69¢ | $-1 | loss |
Elections 67% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 69¢ | 65¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Finance 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Other 67% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 51¢ | 78¢ | +$1 | win |
| Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? | No | 83¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
Politics 50% $-13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $31 | 18/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 80¢ | +$191 | $104 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 21.5¢ | 20¢ | +$8 | $41 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $43 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $45 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $32 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $22 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 74.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $22 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $58 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 93.0¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $268 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 64.1¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $242 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $21 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 70.5¢ | 19¢ | $-23 | $45 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 19.6¢ | 19¢ | $-23 | $22 | 07/04/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $53 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Oman again in March? | No | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $33 | 07/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 31.6¢ | 100¢ | $-28 | $228 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 25.7¢ | 20¢ | +$12 | $23 | 22/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 81¢ | +$176 | $621 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $117 | 30/04/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | No | 74.0¢ | 97¢ | +$2 | $25 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $131 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 51.0¢ | 78¢ | +$1 | $24 | 30/04/2026 |
| Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? | No | 83.0¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | $26 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? | Yes | 85.2¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $56 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $32 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 78¢ | $-2 | $23 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 51.0¢ | 19¢ | $-3 | $25 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 61.9¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $36 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 5¢ | $-5 | $41 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $33 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 87.7¢ | 85¢ | $-1 | $22 | 15/05/2026 |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | $30 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 57.5¢ | 58¢ | +$0 | $32 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 68¢ | +$2 | $23 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 94.0¢ | 92¢ | $-8 | $314 | 30/06/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 8¢ | $-7 | $48 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | $118 | 30/06/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 95.0¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | $45 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | No | 71.7¢ | 69¢ | $-1 | $34 | 30/06/2026 |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $22 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $87 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $22 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 94.6¢ | 97¢ | $-1 | $124 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 65¢ | $-1 | $22 | 30/09/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 7.5¢ | 8¢ | $-3 | $21 | 10/10/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 26.5¢ | 30¢ | +$17 | $148 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68.0¢ | 66¢ | +$92 | $564 | 31/12/2026 |