Win rate
46.7%
754 W / 862 L
Total PnL
$5,870
realized $3,611 · unrealized $2,259
Portfolio
$2,259
volume $836,775
Predictions
2,431
8.8/day · avg $344
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 28/03/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Politics 53% +$11,706
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 25¢ | 42¢ | +$119 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | Yes | 22¢ | 16¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 8¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 32¢ | 40¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Trump Vodka" or "Trump Steak" in April? | No | 68¢ | 97¢ | +$86 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 6¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Will Trump post "Charlie" or "Kirk" this week on Truth Social? | Yes | 50¢ | 44¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Christian" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 65¢ | 45¢ | $-39 | loss |
Crypto 55% +$671
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 36¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 54¢ | 82¢ | +$101 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET | Down | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET | Down | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET | Down | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET | Up | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET | Down | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET | Up | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET | Down | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Up | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
Culture 67% +$364
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Soundtrack in the 2025 Steam Awards? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | No | 27¢ | 100¢ | +$365 | win |
| Will Taylor Swift say "Album" 5+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
Mentions 31% +$117
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 205–219 times August 29–September 5? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$43 | win |
| Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday? | No | 90¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani tweet 40 or more times Tuesday? | Yes | 14¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14? | Yes | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | win |
Esports 100% +$75
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
Weather 33% $-40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Economy 40% $-68
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 8¢ | 1¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 15+ times during speech on October 14? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 15+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 22? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Powell say "Recession" during Framework Review speech on May 15? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
Finance 33% $-93
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will anyone say "Advertisement" during the Q2 2025 AMC earnings call? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will anyone say "Million", "Billion", or "Trillion" 15+ times during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
Tech 48% $-279
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 19¢ | 100¢ | +$127 | win |
| Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | loss |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Diner" during earnings call? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will JD Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during remarks in NC on September 24? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
Geopolitics 35% $-415
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-528 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Yes | 11¢ | 3¢ | $-19 | loss |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 3¢ | +$18 | win |
| Sabres vs. Senators | Sabres | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$202 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 31¢ | 50¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Russia capture Kindrativka by March 31? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Elections 41% $-1,440
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 36¢ | 34¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 47¢ | 44¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Election" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$122 | win |
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64¢ | 85¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will Danish People’s Party win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Liberal Alliance win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-95 | loss |
| Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Other 44% $-1,851
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | Yes | 12¢ | 1¢ | $-84 | loss |
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 36¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 75¢ | 82¢ | +$8 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | Yes | 24¢ | 4¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | loss |
| Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | No | 63¢ | 93¢ | $-18 | loss |
Sports 34% $-4,248
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 6¢ | 4¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 20¢ | 4¢ | $-63 | loss |
| Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | Yes | 46¢ | 64¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Oilers vs. Utah | Oilers | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | loss |
| Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Christian" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 45¢ | $-39 | $97 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 34.2¢ | 33¢ | $-5 | $137 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 90.0¢ | 90¢ | $-2 | $270 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | $81 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Woke" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 34¢ | $-11 | $83 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Secret Service" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 22¢ | $-6 | $38 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Sleepy" or "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 58¢ | $-3 | $33 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Election" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 39.0¢ | 100¢ | +$122 | $78 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $300 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Tax" 10+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $267 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $21 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $20 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $115 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Percent" 10+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | $116 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Fox interview on Wednesday? | Yes | 25.5¢ | 100¢ | +$131 | $45 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET | Down | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $136 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Leo" or "Pope" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | No | 68.1¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $144 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $150 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $32 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET | Down | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | $55 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET | Down | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $368 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET | Up | 58.4¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $146 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET | Down | 42.8¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | $64 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET | Up | 70.6¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $141 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET | Down | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $98 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Up | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $150 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET | Up | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $53 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET | Up | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $56 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | Up | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $60 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | Up | 77.9¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $126 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | Up | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $100 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET | Up | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $270 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET | Down | 70.7¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $70 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | Up | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $75 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET | Down | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $176 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | Down | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $180 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | Up | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $180 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | Down | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $100 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET | Down | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET | Up | 14.7¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $70 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET | Up | 68.5¢ | 0¢ | $-237 | $240 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET | Up | 21.5¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $43 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET | Up | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $30 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET | Down | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | $78 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET | Down | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $30 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET | Up | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | $70 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET | Up | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $22 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET | Up | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | +$66 | $21 | 14/04/2026 |