Win rate
81.0%
498 W / 117 L
Total PnL
$4,387
realized $3,159 · unrealized $1,228
Portfolio
$1,228
volume $1,397,339
Predictions
507
10.4/day · avg $2,756
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 24/06/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 83% +$3,533
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-119 | loss |
| Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | win |
| Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 45¢ | 26¢ | +$3 | win |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 67¢ | 74¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | Yes | 18¢ | 1¢ | +$8 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Geopolitics 76% +$925
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 35¢ | 32¢ | +$76 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 64¢ | 68¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 31¢ | 20¢ | +$21 | win |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 12¢ | +$15 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 30¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 66¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 59¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
Crypto 87% +$203
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | Yes | 62¢ | 8¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 8? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$51 | win |
| Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 78% +$120
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 58¢ | 64¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 32¢ | 34¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 16¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 57¢ | 66¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 32¢ | 1¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Tech 81% +$85
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? | Yes | 32¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Sports 79% +$35
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days? | Yes | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 100% +$25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 16¢ | 8¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 68¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | No | 48¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 80% +$19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 8¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 62¢ | 99¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 35¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 66¢ | 64¢ | $-115 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 62¢ | 80¢ | +$11 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 20¢ | $-18 | loss |
Finance 67% +$9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B? | No | 21¢ | 68¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 12¢ | +$12 | win |
| S&P 500 all time high by December 31? | Yes | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Culture 84% $-90
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-111 | loss |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025) | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025) | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Anaconda" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 23m? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 80.0¢ | 0¢ | +$50 | $6,116 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 48.5¢ | 19¢ | +$28 | $441 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 53.7¢ | 81¢ | +$24 | $752 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $180 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $190 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $636 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $250 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $370 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $131 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $861 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $340 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 98¢ | +$7 | $429 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $145 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 32.0¢ | 1¢ | +$2 | $64 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $1,463 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 60 million views on day 3? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $30 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 53 million views on day 2? | Yes | 85.1¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $149 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 36.6¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $220 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2? | No | 84.7¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $65 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | Yes | 54.4¢ | 0¢ | $-111 | $457 | 06/04/2026 |
| Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $67 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $130 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $28 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 23.6¢ | 0¢ | +$349 | $2,345 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | +$158 | $2,675 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | +$116 | $2,436 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 72.1¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | $4,026 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | Yes | 40.9¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $420 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 85.1¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | $2,886 | 31/03/2026 |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | +$86 | $1,119 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | $4,313 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 65.8¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $1,032 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? | No | 52.7¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $1,307 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? | No | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $368 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | No | 17.0¢ | 13¢ | +$47 | $497 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $1,476 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 71.2¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $2,286 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $958 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 15.2¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | $839 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 25.3¢ | 0¢ | +$38 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $5,128 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | +$35 | $1,004 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 21.3¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | $220 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 24.6¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $616 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | $407 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | $274 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $383 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $253 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $793 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? | No | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | $108 | 31/03/2026 |