Win rate
73.0%
257 W / 95 L
Total PnL
$1,494
realized $-16,946 · unrealized $18,440
Portfolio
$18,440
volume $426,927
Predictions
409
7.0/day · avg $1,044
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/07/2021 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 91% +$2,030
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 90¢ | +$17 | win |
| Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 96¢ | +$24 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | No | 81¢ | 78¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
Politics 77% +$612
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$17 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 90¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$20 | win |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | No | 78¢ | 82¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | No | 70¢ | 64¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 92¢ | +$13 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 96¢ | +$4 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 97¢ | +$7 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 74¢ | 84¢ | +$12 | win |
Elections 74% +$216
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | +$10 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 81¢ | 88¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 78¢ | 84¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 69¢ | 64¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 34¢ | 1¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Tisza win at least 110 seats? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 45¢ | 99¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 60¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | loss |
Sports 100% +$50
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua? | Joshua | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Other 69% +$49
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$35 | win |
| Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | No | 83¢ | 86¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 34¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | Yes | 78¢ | 84¢ | +$79 | win |
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | No | 42¢ | 19¢ | $-29 | loss |
Culture 100% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Tech 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Economy 0% $-41
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Geopolitics 71% $-1,300
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 48¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | No | 72¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 66¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | Yes | 29¢ | 16¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 60¢ | 16¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 30¢ | $-1,364 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $31 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $682 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 58.3¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $61 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 47.2¢ | 100¢ | $-90 | $97 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 94.0¢ | 0¢ | $-141 | $141 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 82.8¢ | 99¢ | +$43 | $269 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 41.8¢ | 96¢ | +$32 | $70 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 90 seats? | Yes | 91.6¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $261 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 45.4¢ | 99¢ | +$19 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? | Yes | 89.2¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $120 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 110 seats? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $38 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $45 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 60.0¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $21 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 60.5¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 71–74% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 35.7¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $46 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 1¢ | $-10 | $63 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 34.2¢ | 1¢ | $-41 | $68 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | No | 67.3¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | $216 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $180 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 96.3¢ | 0¢ | $-335 | $1,456 | 07/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $1,071 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | 80.7¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $121 | 01/04/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$416 | $4,048 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 90.1¢ | 100¢ | +$256 | $4,619 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 55.9¢ | 100¢ | +$160 | $217 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$152 | $3,227 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro exiled to Qatar by March 31? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | $1,801 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition | Yes | 88.6¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $465 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 72.9¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | $394 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | No | 82.8¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $404 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | No | 89.2¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $666 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | No | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $659 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 23.1¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | $366 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 89.2¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $328 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $533 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $847 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $298 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 83.8¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $101 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026? | No | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $337 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $403 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $82 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "N Word" in March? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $89 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | No | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $145 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $192 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 83.6¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $84 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | No | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $95 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 76.3¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $250 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $169 | 31/03/2026 |