0x91784d82fbe4543459ee85fc9809be185d70a2b

Politics 54% +$20,982 $113,712 vol · 494 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$-2	loss
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?	Yes	29¢	24¢	$-29	loss
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	3¢	44¢	+$697	win
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	40¢	56¢	+$166	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	20¢	8¢	+$152	win
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	63¢	100¢	+$131	win
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	6¢	0¢	+$106	win
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	16¢	16¢	+$90	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	51¢	100¢	+$37	win

Other 45% +$12,967 $113,959 vol · 364 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	59¢	64¢	$-34	loss
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	33¢	16¢	+$614	win
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Yes	18¢	12¢	$-19	loss
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-82	loss
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?	Yes	36¢	6¢	+$23	win
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	13¢	4¢	+$40	win
Macron out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	11¢	2¢	$-206	loss
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?	Yes	53¢	9¢	$-35	loss
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?	No	12¢	0¢	$-47	loss

Geopolitics 46% +$6,804 $123,653 vol · 241 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-346	loss
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-34	loss
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	33¢	0¢	+$173	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	31¢	0¢	+$33	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	27¢	100¢	+$6	win
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	19¢	9¢	$-64	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	30¢	69¢	$-69	loss
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	10¢	12¢	$-320	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	15¢	0¢	+$3	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	4¢	0¢	+$24	win

Sports 64% +$1,711 $3,586 vol · 15 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	14¢	49¢	+$301	win
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 16?	Down	6¢	0¢	$-58	loss
Warriors vs. Lakers	Warriors	47¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?	Yes	20¢	100¢	+$27	win
Clippers vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	52¢	100¢	$-70	loss
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during January press conference?	No	12¢	100¢	+$257	win
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?	No	5¢	0¢	+$109	win
Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $55M?	Yes	59¢	100¢	+$0	win
$POPCAT listed on Binance or Coinbase in 2024?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$131	win

Elections 68% +$610 $7,379 vol · 48 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	50¢	62¢	+$19	win
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Yes	27¢	4¢	$-54	loss
Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-43	loss
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	12¢	0¢	+$7	win
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	No	18¢	0¢	$-7	loss
Will the next US Speaker be elected in one ballot?	Yes	13¢	100¢	+$151	win
Canada federal election in 2024?	Yes	15¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will Kamala say "Thank you" 5+ times in her speech after the election is called?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	52¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?	Yes	17¢	0¢	+$137	win

Economy 59% +$136 $5,082 vol · 20 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession in 2025?	Yes	27¢	0¢	+$10	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	22¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-117	loss
Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference?	No	3¢	0¢	+$86	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	32¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?	No	18¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30?	Yes	33¢	100¢	$-12	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	No	41¢	0¢	+$0	—
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	No	4¢	0¢	+$23	win
Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?	Yes	22¢	100¢	+$30	win

Culture 44% $-58 $5,989 vol · 44 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?	No	11¢	0¢	+$-0	—
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-41	loss
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-179	loss
Will Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) win Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?	No	25¢	0¢	+$86	win
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?	Yes	21¢	0¢	+$113	win
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17m?	No	1¢	0¢	$-59	loss
Will "Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$40	win

Weather 19% $-337 $4,866 vol · 26 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	35¢	78¢	$-2	loss
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?	Yes	48¢	100¢	$-47	loss
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?	No	32¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-268	loss
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?	No	6¢	0¢	$-33	loss
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$-76	loss
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?	No	31¢	0¢	$-115	loss
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-267	loss
Will a cat 5 hurricane make US landfall during Hurricane Season 2025?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-231	loss
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?	No	2¢	0¢	$-96	loss

Tech 33% $-382 $4,637 vol · 24 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	41¢	38¢	+$0	win
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-92	loss
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?	No	9¢	100¢	+$647	win
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?	Yes	10¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will Amazon dip to $176 in February?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-115	loss
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 11?	Down	8¢	0¢	$-160	loss
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	No	8¢	0¢	$-87	loss
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on January 7?	Down	13¢	0¢	$-299	loss
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	Yes	15¢	0¢	+$30	win
Will no CEO be announced in 2025?	No	14¢	0¢	+$26	win

Finance 31% $-952 $52,461 vol · 56 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Yes	25¢	0¢	+$1	win
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	69¢	0¢	+$41	win
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?	No	28¢	0¢	$-545	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10?	Down	32¢	100¢	$-146	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 8?	Down	1¢	0¢	$-468	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 7?	Up	33¢	100¢	+$495	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 6?	Down	27¢	0¢	$-918	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 1?	Down	6¢	0¢	$-224	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 1?	Down	3¢	0¢	$-368	loss
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-446	loss

Crypto 30% $-1,556 $82,605 vol · 226 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 6-12?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-41	loss
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	No	2¢	0¢	+$606	win
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	16¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 11?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-390	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 6?	No	10¢	0¢	$-57	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 6?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-193	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on March 5?	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$423	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 5?	No	7¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 18?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-58	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 17?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-88	loss