Win rate
47.2%
128 W / 143 L
Total PnL
$3,097
realized $-11,374 · unrealized $14,471
Portfolio
$14,471
volume $356,102
Predictions
290
7.0/day · avg $1,228
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Elections 47% +$3,814
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | win |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | No | 52¢ | 76¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 29¢ | 41¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | No | 10¢ | 16¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 39¢ | 42¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | No | 7¢ | 13¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? | No | 68¢ | 79¢ | +$31 | win |
Politics 33% +$521
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | Yes | 88¢ | 86¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 29¢ | 40¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 49¢ | 40¢ | +$79 | win |
| Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois? | No | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 5% or more? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-273 | loss |
| Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$564 | win |
| Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary by 6% or more? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Mentions 79% +$178
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026? | No | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | win |
Crypto 100% +$46
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
Sports 25% +$32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$218 | win |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 85¢ | 83¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will DR Congo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | loss |
Tech 100% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
Economy 75% $-17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 70¢ | 8¢ | $-125 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will US GDP growth in 2025 be greater than 2.5%? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
Culture 0% $-85
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | loss |
Other 53% $-186
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Starmer out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 64¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 74¢ | 72¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Getafe be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? | No | 77¢ | 99¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Yes | 66¢ | 98¢ | +$134 | win |
| Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? | Yes | 29¢ | 39¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? | No | 69¢ | 68¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | No | 62¢ | 63¢ | +$3 | win |
Finance 50% $-218
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will GoPro (GPRO) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? | Up | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Eventbrite (EB) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
| Will Zoom Communications (ZM) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will TKO Group Holdings (TKO) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-147 | loss |
| Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-170 | loss |
Geopolitics 14% $-915
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 16¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-123 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-126 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-174 | loss |
| Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-166 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-286 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? | Yes | 64.3¢ | 87¢ | +$1,138 | $2,550 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 11.3¢ | 100¢ | +$313 | $92 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 50.2¢ | 100¢ | +$299 | $306 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? | No | 69.9¢ | 6¢ | +$185 | $785 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 8.0¢ | 85¢ | +$168 | $32 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+? | No | 76.3¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $952 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 84.0¢ | 84¢ | +$144 | $1,238 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$141 | $314 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 18.3¢ | 4¢ | +$140 | $91 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 31.0¢ | 15¢ | +$121 | $335 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | +$120 | $72 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 30.3¢ | 96¢ | +$107 | $162 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | Yes | 26.9¢ | 15¢ | +$102 | $217 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 99¢ | +$102 | $96 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 83.7¢ | 99¢ | +$87 | $460 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | No | 82.2¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $411 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 31.5¢ | 1¢ | +$80 | $142 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $152 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 71–74% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 52.9¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $117 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? | No | 54.3¢ | 13¢ | +$44 | $1,589 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 35.4¢ | 16¢ | +$22 | $441 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $180 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $535 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $36 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 51.9¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $130 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 58.0¢ | 2¢ | $-6 | $43 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 85¢ | $-28 | $237 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 90 seats? | No | 8.8¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $44 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | No | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $170 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%? | No | 86.4¢ | 89¢ | $-47 | $1,013 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 76.0¢ | 85¢ | $-49 | $144 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $66 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | $82 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | $-105 | $230 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | $-114 | $114 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 35.8¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | $215 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will DR Congo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 29.8¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | $120 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | Yes | 95.1¢ | 96¢ | $-131 | $568 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | Yes | 14.1¢ | 0¢ | $-139 | $139 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? | No | 44.5¢ | 0¢ | $-154 | $178 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 99¢ | $-154 | $357 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 84.0¢ | 98¢ | $-165 | $749 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | $-185 | $435 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 59.4¢ | 0¢ | $-187 | $187 | 12/04/2026 |
| Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | No | 73.4¢ | 0¢ | $-550 | $550 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 67.3¢ | 0¢ | $-584 | $584 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%? | Yes | 53.4¢ | 11¢ | $-642 | $2,214 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | $129 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? | Yes | 23.7¢ | 94¢ | +$3,562 | $1,326 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | +$191 | $62 | 12/04/2026 |