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Geopolitics 74% +$10,427 $205,485 vol · 268 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	22¢	0¢	$-153	loss
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	12¢	0¢	+$64	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	10¢	100¢	+$58	win
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	55¢	22¢	+$9	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	30¢	0¢	$-349	loss
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	87¢	91¢	+$0	—
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	87¢	86¢	+$-0	—
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	62¢	84¢	$-24	loss
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	62¢	72¢	$-36	loss
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	75¢	78¢	+$41	win

Other 71% +$4,983 $116,066 vol · 222 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026?	No	81¢	80¢	$-1	loss
Will Marti Morfitt be the next CEO of Lululemon?	No	70¢	73¢	+$3	win
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	No	56¢	68¢	+$19	win
Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?	No	60¢	94¢	+$50	win
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	No	39¢	68¢	+$14	win
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time?	No	94¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	63¢	84¢	$-2	loss
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	84¢	90¢	+$11	win
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?	No	58¢	72¢	+$26	win

Crypto 74% +$1,357 $13,449 vol · 39 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	81¢	84¢	+$50	win
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	56¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?	No	75¢	85¢	+$29	win
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31?	No	40¢	100¢	+$23	win
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $120k first?	100k	74¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?	No	83¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Elizabeth Holmes launch a coin by December 31?	No	74¢	100¢	$-12	loss
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$92	win
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2025?	No	75¢	100¢	+$26	win

Tech 59% +$1,228 $12,047 vol · 39 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?	No	73¢	80¢	+$9	win
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	63¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025?	No	82¢	100¢	+$61	win
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #2 searched person on Google this year?	No	75¢	100¢	+$5	win
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025?	No	91¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	85¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	No	86¢	100¢	+$0	—
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025?	Yes	81¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	No	73¢	100¢	$-115	loss
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?	No	82¢	100¢	$-2	loss

Finance 82% +$1,171 $8,939 vol · 28 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	37¢	26¢	$-18	loss
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	65¢	56¢	+$2	win
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	27¢	26¢	$-54	loss
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in February 2026 (ET)?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	8¢	6¢	$-4	loss
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?	No	96¢	96¢	+$26	win
No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	64¢	66¢	+$1	win
Will ETSY (ETSY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	26¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$306	win
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$9	win

Sports 64% +$1,124 $2,413 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	36¢	0¢	+$2	win
Robinhood larger than Coinbase before 2026?	Yes	49¢	100¢	+$1,365	win
Will Phil Galfond win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?	No	92¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Thursday?	No	67¢	0¢	$-142	loss
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10?	No	33¢	0¢	$-135	loss
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?	No	38¢	0¢	+$17	win
Bonnie Blue unbanned on OnlyFans in June?	No	87¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$10	win

Economy 69% +$852 $22,161 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession by end of 2026?	No	67¢	74¢	+$8	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-46	loss
US recession in 2025?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-5	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$224	win
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	51¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	13¢	0¢	+$5	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$411	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	No	83¢	100¢	+$90	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	22¢	0¢	$-48	loss

Elections 80% +$500 $9,631 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump sue NYT/Siena over polling by Feb 28?	Yes	56¢	0¢	$-89	loss
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	96¢	100¢	+$5	win
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?	No	92¢	93¢	+$10	win
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$364	win
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?	Yes	58¢	100¢	+$52	win
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?	No	99¢	100¢	+$13	win

Politics 74% +$466 $95,784 vol · 165 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	83¢	92¢	+$330	win
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	98¢	100¢	$-71	loss
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	26¢	42¢	+$166	win
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-77	loss
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	72¢	88¢	+$59	win
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	27¢	0¢	+$23	win
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?	No	80¢	85¢	+$1	win
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	80¢	92¢	$-13	loss
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	70¢	100¢	$-20	loss
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	No	79¢	84¢	+$2	win

Culture 67% +$7 $931 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$27	win
Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Justin Bieber's album "SWAG" debut at #1 in its first week?	Yes	65¢	0¢	$-26	loss

Mentions 100% +$4 $147 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?	No	64¢	100¢	+$4	win

Esports 100% +$4 $26 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)	Vitality	88¢	100¢	+$4	win