Win rate
53.6%
60 W / 52 L
Total PnL
$-384
realized $-1,348 · unrealized $963
Portfolio
$963
volume $54,179
Predictions
140
1.6/day · avg $387
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/01/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 60% +$96
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Yes | 35¢ | 15¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? | No | 68¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? | No | 66¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-172 | loss |
| Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? | No | 31¢ | 48¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? | No | 24¢ | 61¢ | +$149 | win |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? | No | 76¢ | 89¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Russia enter Stinky by April 30? | Yes | 14¢ | 3¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
Other 50% +$43
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 8¢ | +$1 | win |
| French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will no new pope be elected in 2025? | No | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | win |
| New Pope before July? | Yes | 23¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | win |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will the AFD be part of the next German government? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| New Pope announced by May 9? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the ECB announce no change? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-111 | loss |
| Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? | Yes | 24¢ | 100¢ | $-41 | loss |
Politics 50% $-37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 16¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025? | Yes | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first? | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | loss |
Finance 0% $-45
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
Elections 44% $-64
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 24¢ | 34¢ | +$50 | win |
| Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Ukraine election called in 2025? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Yes | 73¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will George Simion win by 0–6%? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | Yes | 29¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
Crypto 17% $-223
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 10¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Bitcoin all time high before 2026? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Will Solana hit $275 by January 31, 2025? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31? | No | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? | No | 53.1¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $146 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31? | No | 69.6¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $84 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Borova by March 31? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $53 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $90 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $84 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? | No | 61.2¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $183 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $88 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? | No | 72.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $316 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | No | 47.0¢ | 50¢ | +$4 | $70 | 31/03/2026 |
| French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28? | No | 59.7¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $30 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $74 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28? | No | 39.4¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | $69 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | $116 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting? | Yes | 66.5¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $67 | 13/02/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting? | Yes | 70.5¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | $141 | 13/02/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? | No | 63.0¢ | 99¢ | +$57 | $126 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $556 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by February 28, 2026? | No | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $54 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? | No | 65.2¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $130 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $153 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Toretske by January 31? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $77 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026? | No | 64.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $129 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $33 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $78 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Toretske by February 28? | No | 46.6¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $78 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 54.9¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $111 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28? | No | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | $132 | 31/01/2026 |
| Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 31, 2026? | No | 41.7¢ | 0¢ | $-84 | $84 | 15/01/2026 |
| Will no new pope be elected in 2025? | No | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | $88 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28? | No | 76.4¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $433 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? | No | 36.1¢ | 0¢ | +$55 | $105 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? | No | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $110 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $216 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $32 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $60 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | 27.5¢ | 0¢ | +$23 | $55 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | $30 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $74 | 31/12/2025 |
| Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $36 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $52 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $50 | 31/12/2025 |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025? | No | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $34 | 31/12/2025 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $25 | 31/12/2025 |
| Ukraine election called in 2025? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $30 | 31/12/2025 |