Win rate
43.2%
48 W / 63 L
Total PnL
$298
realized $-245 · unrealized $543
Portfolio
$543
volume $65,623
Predictions
275
4.4/day · avg $239
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 42% +$895
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-157 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 70¢ | 70¢ | +$4 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 76¢ | +$8 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$163 | win |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | Yes | 65¢ | 18¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 34¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | No | 45¢ | 82¢ | $-2 | loss |
Politics 67% +$39
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 26¢ | 21¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | No | 27¢ | 26¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Trump post "Hezbollah" this week on Truth Social? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15) | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
Sports 57% +$17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 17¢ | $-0 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims) | Marcin Tybura | 37¢ | 0¢ | +$48 | win |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | Over | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims) | Tofiq Musayev | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims) | Yousri Belgaroui | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelims) | Vitor Petrino | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Elijah Smith win by KO or TKO? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
Elections 25% $-10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 40¢ | 40¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 42¢ | 34¢ | $-2 | loss |
Crypto 50% $-13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET | Up | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | Down | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET | Up | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | Up | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET | Up | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | Up | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET | Down | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET | Up | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET | Down | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Esports 67% $-13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B | TheMongolz | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B | MOUZ | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 | Astralis | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Other 34% $-354
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | loss |
| Will a team from England be the 2026 Champions League winner? | Yes | 57¢ | 27¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 28¢ | 28¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? | No | 32¢ | 34¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? | Yes | 34¢ | 32¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 50¢ | 72¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | Yes | 54¢ | 30¢ | $-15 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 62.2¢ | 100¢ | +$153 | $262 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $55 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 74.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $70 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 67.0¢ | 13¢ | $-29 | $107 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? | No | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $27 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | No | 26.6¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $53 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 67.7¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $113 | 10/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET | Up | 45.3¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 08/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 35.6¢ | 100¢ | +$472 | $268 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 12.4¢ | 13¢ | $-65 | $65 | 07/04/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 43.7¢ | 100¢ | +$204 | $294 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | No | 58.4¢ | 100¢ | +$109 | $162 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? | No | 66.5¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $88 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 61.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? | No | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | 58.2¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $278 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 69.5¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $265 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | Yes | 60.7¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $213 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? | Yes | 60.5¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 65.3¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $122 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026? | Yes | 64.5¢ | 100¢ | $-28 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $73 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-573 | $613 | 31/03/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims) | Marcin Tybura | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | +$48 | $29 | 29/03/2026 |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | Over | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $22 | 29/03/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims) | Tofiq Musayev | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $31 | 29/03/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims) | Yousri Belgaroui | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $31 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will Armenia win on 2026-03-29? | Yes | 24.9¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? | No | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $25 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $88 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? | Yes | 30.4¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $31 | 22/03/2026 |
| FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 | Under | 53.4¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $27 | 19/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B | TheMongolz | 83.3¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $25 | 19/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B | MOUZ | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $61 | 19/03/2026 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? | Yes | 72.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $39 | 18/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | Down | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? | Yes | 49.4¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $34 | 17/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET | Up | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $30 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15) | Yes | 68.8¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $75 | 15/03/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelims) | Vitor Petrino | 66.4¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | $26 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Elijah Smith win by KO or TKO? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $37 | 15/03/2026 |
| NK Celje vs. AEK: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 60.3¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $25 | 12/03/2026 |
| Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 12/03/2026 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? | Yes | 39.6¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $28 | 11/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 | Astralis | 66.6¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $52 | 11/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? | Yes | 32.8¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $22 | 06/03/2026 |