Win rate
75.0%
90 W / 30 L
Total PnL
$-626
realized $-1,579 · unrealized $953
Portfolio
$953
volume $30,417
Predictions
132
1.4/day · avg $230
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 18/07/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 90% +$206
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 74¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | No | 91¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? | No | 90¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on October 13? | Down | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 12? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Economy 75% +$84
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
Finance 67% +$29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 86¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 5.0% by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Tech 86% +$27
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google reach $375 in January? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Google (GOOGL) hit $345 before 2026?? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close at $265–280 in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Elections 67% $-22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Politics 40% $-52
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| New US sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justices by September 30? | No | 77¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Sports 80% $-64
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | loss |
| Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 67% $-104
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-103 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | No | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Israel strikes Yemen by Friday? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Other 67% $-726
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | No | 84¢ | 96¢ | +$4 | win |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev | Alexander Zverev | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca | Carlos Alcaraz | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner | Sinner | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev | Alexander Zverev | 71.8¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 90.1¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $247 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? | No | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $190 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $32 | 01/04/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $131 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.8% by March 31? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $160 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 5.0% by March 31? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 74.0¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | $-44 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca | Carlos Alcaraz | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $51 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $268 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $217 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $197 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $171 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | No | 91.0¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | $100 | 01/03/2026 |
| Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner | Sinner | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $41 | 11/02/2026 |
| Will Google reach $375 in January? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $200 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Australian Open? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $40 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $42 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? | No | 89.9¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $63 | 01/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $103 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $77 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | No | 86.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $61 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $160 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $50 | 31/01/2026 |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $60 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $40 | 31/01/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $46 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? | No | 95.4¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $224 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? | No | 94.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January? | No | 14.1¢ | 0¢ | $-131 | $131 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January? | No | 92.3¢ | 0¢ | $-337 | $360 | 31/01/2026 |
| No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 87.6¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $100 | 27/01/2026 |
| No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting? | No | 15.2¢ | 0¢ | $-178 | $178 | 27/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | No | 68.6¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $80 | 15/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $100 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $300 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $200 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? | Yes | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $219 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025? | No | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $233 | 31/12/2025 |
| Maduro out in 2025? | No | 83.2¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Google (GOOGL) hit $375 before 2026?? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |