Win rate
38.4%
1452 W / 2328 L
Total PnL
$-81,955
realized $-124,744 · unrealized $42,789
Portfolio
$42,789
volume $18,377,505
Predictions
4,166
11.9/day · avg $4,411
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Crypto 37% +$41,221
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 42¢ | +$1,539 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 20¢ | +$857 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 20¢ | +$165 | win |
| Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? | Yes | 35¢ | 15¢ | $-243 | loss |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 10¢ | $-337 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? | Yes | 19¢ | 2¢ | $-245 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 17? | No | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-2,372 | loss |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 16? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-538 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 16? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-715 | loss |
Economy 67% +$402
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$480 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-228 | loss |
| Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$150 | win |
Weather 45% $-74
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 26¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | No | 77¢ | 78¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | Yes | 9¢ | 18¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 24¢ | 18¢ | +$184 | win |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-168 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-944 | loss |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-762 | loss |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-1,138 | loss |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$284 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-184 | loss |
Politics 44% $-118
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-74 | loss |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | $-106 | loss |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 16¢ | +$276 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-420 | loss |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
| Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$506 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado not shake hands? | Yes | 8¢ | 100¢ | +$666 | win |
| Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-41 | loss |
Elections 27% $-866
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 18¢ | 17¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 6¢ | 5¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 32¢ | 32¢ | +$158 | win |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | +$98 | win |
| America Party wins a federal or gubernatorial election in 2025? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-115 | loss |
| Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-160 | loss |
| Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 6¢ | $-262 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-181 | loss |
| Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$74 | win |
| Georgescu banned from Romania election? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | $-42 | loss |
Finance 11% $-2,456
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-290 | loss |
| Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-369 | loss |
| Will Omnicom Group (OMC) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-355 | loss |
| Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-273 | loss |
| Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-287 | loss |
| Will Abbott Laboratories (ABT) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 23¢ | 100¢ | +$959 | win |
| Will Citizens Financial Group (CFG) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-254 | loss |
| Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-261 | loss |
| Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-285 | loss |
| Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$800 | win |
Sports 35% $-18,180
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$1,204 | win |
| Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$523 | win |
| Hurricanes vs. Sharks | Sharks | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-280 | loss |
| Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-161 | loss |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-235 | loss |
| NBA Finals: Will any game go to overtime? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Thunder vs. Pacers | Thunder | 55¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Thunder vs. Pacers | Pacers | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-603 | loss |
| Thunder vs. Pacers | Pacers | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$1,049 | win |
| Thunder vs. Pacers | Thunder | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
Geopolitics 45% $-44,201
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | Yes | 14¢ | 16¢ | +$439 | win |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | No | 42¢ | 82¢ | +$368 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | +$229 | win |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 43¢ | 74¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 51¢ | 80¢ | $-188 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 9¢ | $-300 | loss |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | +$46 | win |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 20¢ | +$205 | win |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 7¢ | $-182 | loss |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $-42 | loss |
Other 39% $-122,396
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? | No | 30¢ | 64¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 8¢ | $-96 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 15¢ | 42¢ | +$450 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | Yes | 13¢ | 22¢ | +$121 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 24¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 23¢ | $-134 | loss |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 11¢ | $-647 | loss |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 22¢ | $-559 | loss |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 11¢ | $-60 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Club León FC win on 2026-04-18? | Yes | 43.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,701 | $1,299 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-04-19? | No | 76.0¢ | 76¢ | $-17 | $2,660 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will FK Dinamo Makhachkala vs. FK Zenit end in a draw? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 28¢ | $-50 | $1,014 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-04-19? | No | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,648 | $1,650 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-04-18? | Yes | 45.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1,374 | $1,374 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Auckland FC win on 2026-04-18? | No | 31.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2,062 | $936 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Empoli FC vs. Virtus Entella end in a draw? | Yes | 31.7¢ | 31¢ | $-20 | $950 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Calcio Padova vs. AC Reggiana 1919 end in a draw? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 30¢ | $-15 | $930 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will FK Krasnodar win on 2026-04-19? | Yes | 63.7¢ | 64¢ | $-6 | $1,883 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Club Alianza Atlético win on 2026-04-19? | No | 47.6¢ | 46¢ | $-39 | $1,203 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will FBC Melgar win on 2026-04-19? | No | 62.0¢ | 60¢ | $-31 | $1,309 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-04-18? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-420 | $420 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Samsunspor win on 2026-04-19? | No | 73.0¢ | 74¢ | +$5 | $787 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? | No | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,860 | $1,140 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-04-18? | No | 80.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,783 | $2,800 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-04-18? | No | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,740 | $1,740 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Spezia Calcio vs. FC Südtirol end in a draw? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-940 | $960 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Mantova 1911 vs. US Avellino 1912 end in a draw? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-940 | $960 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will CS Huancayo win on 2026-04-18? | No | 49.4¢ | 0¢ | $-947 | $962 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-04-18? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-540 | $540 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-04-17? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,746 | $1,750 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 17? | No | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,372 | $2,473 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,869 | $1,890 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will UC Sampdoria vs. AC Monza end in a draw? | Yes | 31.9¢ | 0¢ | $-943 | $962 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,149 | $1,170 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will CD Los Chankas win on 2026-04-17? | No | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-874 | $889 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | $110 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 16? | No | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-538 | $574 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 16? | No | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-715 | $759 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 100¢ | +$390 | $300 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 15.8¢ | 81¢ | +$172 | $238 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 15? | No | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-597 | $636 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 14? | No | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,115 | $1,176 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 14? | No | 23.2¢ | 0¢ | $-877 | $928 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Central Córdoba end in a draw? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-475 | $480 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 13? | No | 55.2¢ | 0¢ | $-2,988 | $3,088 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12? | Yes | 6.8¢ | 0¢ | $-159 | $171 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will CA Lanús vs. CA Banfield end in a draw? | Yes | 29.3¢ | 0¢ | $-587 | $592 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 6-12? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-159 | $160 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will CA Sarmiento vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata end in a draw? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | $-667 | $680 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Talleres end in a draw? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-706 | $720 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will NEC vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam end in a draw? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2,957 | $1,039 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will PEC Zwolle vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw? | Yes | 26.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2,925 | $1,071 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fortuna Sittard vs. NAC Breda end in a draw? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2,876 | $1,120 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 69.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1,023 | $4,522 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,222 | $1,250 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Spezia Calcio vs. Mantova 1911 end in a draw? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,293 | $1,320 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will AZ vs. SC Heerenveen end in a draw? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-920 | $920 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,492 | $2,520 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 56.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,210 | $2,240 | 12/04/2026 |