CarolBeer

Politics 53% +$1,651 $13,268 vol · 103 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	65¢	73¢	$-1	loss
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	11¢	8¢	$-3	loss
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	97¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-41	loss
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	79¢	92¢	+$95	win
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	71¢	100¢	+$6	win
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-180	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	18¢	14¢	$-15	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	55¢	52¢	$-15	loss
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-29	loss

Crypto 42% +$1,481 $12,570 vol · 109 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	1¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	17¢	20¢	+$44	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-55	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 3?	No	3¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-87	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 19?	No	2¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 17?	No	10¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 16?	No	18¢	100¢	+$99	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30?	No	8¢	0¢	$-74	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 26?	No	5¢	0¢	$-23	loss

Geopolitics 49% +$1,232 $22,894 vol · 79 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	50¢	0¢	$-549	loss
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	39¢	71¢	+$44	win
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	69¢	72¢	$-2	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	45¢	30¢	$-13	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	60¢	84¢	$-26	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	51¢	76¢	+$201	win
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	50¢	0¢	$-243	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	63¢	0¢	$-320	loss
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	No	68¢	90¢	+$81	win
Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?	No	79¢	94¢	+$64	win

Tech 32% +$478 $5,260 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?	No	55¢	91¢	+$256	win
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	No	25¢	0¢	$-257	loss
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026	No	16¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-125	loss
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q4 2025	No	80¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q4 2025	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	50¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?	No	73¢	100¢	+$177	win
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $420 before 2026??	No	12¢	0¢	$-22	loss

Culture 75% +$82 $943 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Taylor Swift be the second most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$35	win
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?	Yes	46¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?	No	96¢	100¢	+$22	win

Weather 100% +$1 $24 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?	Yes	60¢	0¢	+$1	win

Finance 25% $-106 $446 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	No	14¢	6¢	$-93	loss
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	27¢	23¢	$-11	loss
Another actor announced as next James Bond actor?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$4	win

Economy 20% $-168 $820 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession in 2025?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-63	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	17¢	0¢	+$0	—
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-4	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?	No	21¢	0¢	$-28	loss
U.S. recession before May 2025?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-14	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?	No	5¢	0¢	+$0	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?	Yes	48¢	100¢	+$10	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?	Yes	54¢	0¢	$-38	loss

Sports 43% $-382 $2,527 vol · 72 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Patriots	32¢	0¢	$-32	loss
Ravens vs. Steelers	Ravens	66¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Knicks vs. Spurs	Knicks	63¢	0¢	$-13	loss
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?	No	34¢	100¢	+$1	win
76ers vs. Grizzlies	Grizzlies	52¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Rams vs. Falcons	Rams	50¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Kings vs. Lakers	Lakers	81¢	100¢	+$13	win
Jaguars vs. Colts	Jaguars	71¢	100¢	+$4	win
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers	Celtics	70¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Texans vs. Chargers	Chargers	29¢	0¢	$-38	loss

Other 42% $-1,330 $17,469 vol · 97 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?	No	45¢	0¢	$-241	loss
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	40¢	84¢	+$56	win
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	33¢	35¢	+$8	win
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	49¢	22¢	$-10	loss
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	84¢	84¢	$-2	loss
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	83¢	82¢	$-4	loss
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	17¢	51¢	+$140	win
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	41¢	40¢	$-1	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	75¢	62¢	$-35	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	42¢	38¢	$-35	loss

Elections 32% $-1,360 $10,117 vol · 47 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	1¢	$-292	loss
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$0	—
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	21¢	22¢	+$3	win
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	39¢	56¢	+$81	win
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	87¢	90¢	+$0	—
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	95¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	19¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Will Matt Van Epps win TN-7 Special Election?	No	17¢	0¢	$-66	loss
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$191	win