Win rate
61.9%
146 W / 90 L
Total PnL
$47,728
realized $-25,950 · unrealized $73,677
Portfolio
$73,677
volume $3,328,350
Predictions
236
3.7/day · avg $14,103
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 09/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 66% +$30,243
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 71¢ | 70¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 37¢ | 65¢ | +$2 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$407 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 76¢ | 84¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$2,669 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 58¢ | 72¢ | +$582 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 60¢ | 90¢ | +$160 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$6 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 23¢ | 28¢ | +$0 | — |
Geopolitics 72% +$9,823
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-195 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 49¢ | 69¢ | +$2,265 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 35¢ | 72¢ | +$188 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 55¢ | +$500 | win |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? | No | 78¢ | 95¢ | +$101 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-4,165 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1,504 | loss |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$788 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 57¢ | 90¢ | +$325 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 76¢ | +$61 | win |
Sports 54% +$5,897
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $-220 | loss |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 56¢ | 56¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $-420 | loss |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | Lakers | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | loss |
| Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Spivac | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$159 | win |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$134 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) | Costa | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Ode' Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris (Flyweight, Prelims) | Osbourne | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-138 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims) | Njokuani | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-198 | loss |
Culture 31% +$754
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 13m? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 14.5m and 16m? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$368 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-170 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 23m? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-1,920 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-2,596 | loss |
| Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-237 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m? | No | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$4,516 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-469 | loss |
Politics 54% +$627
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-537 | loss |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | 58¢ | 92¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-1,560 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 17¢ | 100¢ | +$1,956 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 6+ times during the next White House Press Briefing? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
Elections 33% +$470
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 16¢ | 26¢ | $-239 | loss |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$1,661 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 42¢ | 76¢ | $-220 | loss |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 35¢ | 1¢ | $-679 | loss |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | Yes | 91¢ | 88¢ | $-93 | loss |
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
Crypto 100% +$439
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$119 | win |
| Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$269 | win |
| Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | No | 83¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
Tech 50% +$310
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-657 | loss |
Finance 100% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Economy 50% $-214
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | win |
| Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-295 | loss |
Esports 0% $-230
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: paiN vs BetBoom Team (BO3) | BetBoom Team | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-230 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$663 | $9,809 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 70.9¢ | 100¢ | +$451 | $6,554 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $721 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | $390 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 50.2¢ | 0¢ | $-175 | $1,946 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-228 | $660 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | $-433 | $16,024 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | $-1,560 | $8,570 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 86¢ | +$416 | $7,062 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 66.0¢ | 99¢ | +$4,653 | $12,061 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 73.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,661 | $4,567 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 42.0¢ | 76¢ | $-220 | $420 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 35.0¢ | 1¢ | $-679 | $819 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | Yes | 91.5¢ | 88¢ | $-93 | $2,208 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$412 | $5,577 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 73.6¢ | 0¢ | $-207 | $8,059 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 58.9¢ | 86¢ | +$2,495 | $10,004 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $410 | 06/04/2026 |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | Lakers | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | $120 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | +$36,900 | $4,537 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 17.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,956 | $418 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,347 | $33,507 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 74.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1,058 | $4,183 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$389 | $2,052 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? | Yes | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$333 | $3,655 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$211 | $2,361 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$206 | $3,707 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | $10,790 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 76.5¢ | 100¢ | +$131 | $745 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | $1,698 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $6,709 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $419 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $750 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | No | 54.6¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $1,690 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 61.2¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $184 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $15,628 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $64 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | No | 61.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $366 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $930 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $552 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $940 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | $-139 | $2,496 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? | No | 69.3¢ | 100¢ | $-245 | $1,040 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? | No | 79.3¢ | 100¢ | $-308 | $1,713 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 75.6¢ | 0¢ | $-507 | $5,338 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? | No | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3,909 | $5,430 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? | Yes | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | $101 | 23/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $929 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $964 | 13/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $11,363 | 13/03/2026 |