Win rate
73.1%
38 W / 14 L
Total PnL
$352
realized $-447 · unrealized $799
Portfolio
$799
volume $9,678
Predictions
77
1.6/day · avg $126
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 82% +$208
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 24¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 70¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 7? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 2? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 67% +$50
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 7¢ | 11¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
Politics 80% +$39
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 14¢ | 21¢ | +$37 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 52¢ | 52¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Other 72% +$21
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 34¢ | 26¢ | $-5 | loss |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 45¢ | 54¢ | +$5 | win |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? | Yes | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
Economy 50% $-3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 0% $-10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 30¢ | $-5 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 7? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $90 | 07/02/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $90 | 06/02/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $150 | 19/01/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? | Yes | 79.7¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $64 | 16/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Yes | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $149 | 01/01/2026 |
| Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31? | No | 53.8¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $64 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $37 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $28 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? | Yes | 84.2¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $58 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Yes | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $348 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by October 31? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $42 | 31/12/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $36 | 10/12/2025 |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? | Yes | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $47 | 26/11/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $468 | 15/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $455 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $204 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 2? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $48 | 02/11/2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $39 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $35 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $40 | 31/10/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $42 | 29/10/2025 |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $109 | 01/01/1970 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 51.7¢ | 52¢ | +$9 | $57 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | No | 24.3¢ | 16¢ | $-26 | $80 | 30/06/2026 |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $42 | 30/06/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 40.5¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $53 | 31/12/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 30¢ | $-5 | $22 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 19.3¢ | 16¢ | $-14 | $96 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 25.6¢ | 20¢ | $-25 | $113 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 34.7¢ | 50¢ | +$37 | $85 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 26.2¢ | 37¢ | +$15 | $37 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 31.1¢ | 72¢ | +$44 | $34 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 39.4¢ | 55¢ | +$11 | $28 | 01/01/2027 |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 45.4¢ | 54¢ | +$5 | $29 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 36.0¢ | 76¢ | +$54 | $58 | 01/01/2027 |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 37.8¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $23 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 53.6¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $27 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 57.7¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $23 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 67.0¢ | 88¢ | +$12 | $34 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 59.0¢ | 84¢ | +$10 | $24 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 73.6¢ | 90¢ | +$9 | $37 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 78.0¢ | 92¢ | +$7 | $39 | 01/01/2027 |
| Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $21 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 70.0¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | $21 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 80.7¢ | 40¢ | +$3 | $24 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 82.0¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | $25 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 85.0¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | $26 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 68.7¢ | 24¢ | $-8 | $28 | 01/01/2027 |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 88.5¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $35 | 01/01/2027 |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $27 | 01/01/2027 |