Win rate
58.1%
36 W / 26 L
Total PnL
$522,962
realized $341,436 · unrealized $181,526
Portfolio
$181,526
volume $6,358,194
Predictions
63
1.0/day · avg $100,924
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 21/07/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Elections 67% +$462,367
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 53¢ | 52¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | $-9,996 | loss |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2,389 | win |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1,722 | win |
| Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$263 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$468,009 | win |
Geopolitics 73% +$41,049
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | +$1,154 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 35¢ | $-5,419 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? | No | 74¢ | 72¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 90¢ | 94¢ | +$105 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 80¢ | 70¢ | $-2,200 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | No | 84¢ | 94¢ | +$475 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$47,677 | win |
Other 60% +$38,252
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 87¢ | 86¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 80¢ | 76¢ | $-175 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 85¢ | 60¢ | $-588 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 54¢ | 40¢ | $-2,821 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 78¢ | 99¢ | +$2,742 | win |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$32,042 | win |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$2,827 | win |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4,180 | win |
| Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
Sports 38% $-136
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | +$9 | win |
Politics 52% $-19,546
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 33¢ | 28¢ | $-18,120 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 90¢ | 93¢ | +$13 | win |
| Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador? | Yes | 99¢ | 0¢ | $-2,964 | loss |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-1,577 | loss |
| Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$13,900 | win |
| Was Trump hacked? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$621 | win |
| Will Trump say "Weird" during Elon interview? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-6,864 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Tampon" during Elon interview? | No | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-847 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 99¢ | +$2,742 | $10,087 | 12/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 82.4¢ | 100¢ | +$47,677 | $225,498 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? | No | 78.0¢ | 80¢ | +$115 | $3,568 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $470 | 30/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | $-9,996 | $79,429 | 04/11/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? | No | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2,641 | $17,459 | 31/10/2025 |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer confirmed as Labor Secretary? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $3,000 | 30/06/2025 |
| Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $1,750 | 30/06/2025 |
| Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-43 | $1,650 | 30/06/2025 |
| Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 0¢ | $-2,964 | $3,000 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Yes | 81.3¢ | 100¢ | +$32,042 | $139,000 | 28/04/2025 |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | No | 79.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2,827 | $10,937 | 28/04/2025 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | No | 80.1¢ | 100¢ | $-1,577 | $49,421 | 20/04/2025 |
| Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | No | 57.5¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | $5,272 | 31/03/2025 |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4,180 | $145,802 | 23/02/2025 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2,389 | $51,917 | 23/02/2025 |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,722 | $71,222 | 23/02/2025 |
| Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$263 | $5,000 | 23/02/2025 |
| Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $16,876 | 23/02/2025 |
| Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $1,793 | 15/02/2025 |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Yes | 56.1¢ | 100¢ | +$13,900 | $46,261 | 20/01/2025 |
| Was Trump hacked? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$621 | $99,800 | 19/01/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 48.6¢ | 100¢ | +$468,009 | $1,144,896 | 05/11/2024 |
| Will Trump say "Illegal immigrant" during Elon interview? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7,581 | $11,383 | 23/08/2024 |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" during Elon interview? | Yes | 70.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5,672 | $13,772 | 23/08/2024 |
| Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview? | Yes | 61.1¢ | 0¢ | +$2,670 | $8,635 | 23/08/2024 |
| Will Trump say "Mars" during Elon interview? | No | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$468 | $994 | 23/08/2024 |
| Will Trump say "Tampon" during Elon interview? | No | 83.0¢ | 0¢ | $-847 | $847 | 23/08/2024 |
| Will Trump say "Tesla" during Elon interview? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,070 | $2,070 | 23/08/2024 |
| Will Trump say "Civil war" during Elon interview? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,541 | $2,541 | 23/08/2024 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" during Elon interview? | Yes | 65.1¢ | 0¢ | $-2,901 | $2,901 | 23/08/2024 |
| Will Trump say "Weird" during Elon interview? | Yes | 43.3¢ | 0¢ | $-6,864 | $6,864 | 23/08/2024 |
| Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | No | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | $15,000 | 22/08/2024 |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | 78.4¢ | 0¢ | $-15,634 | $15,674 | 22/08/2024 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2,950 | $270,786 | 19/08/2024 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 53.6¢ | 40¢ | $-2,821 | $11,522 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $3,799 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 85.0¢ | 60¢ | $-588 | $5,001 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | No | 70.1¢ | 56¢ | $-3,680 | $8,109 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 79.8¢ | 76¢ | $-175 | $4,266 | 31/05/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | No | 84.0¢ | 94¢ | +$475 | $4,200 | 31/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 70¢ | $-2,200 | $16,000 | 31/05/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 90¢ | +$48 | $8,640 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? | No | 91.0¢ | 92¢ | +$58 | $3,500 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 90.0¢ | 94¢ | +$105 | $2,700 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? | No | 73.8¢ | 72¢ | $-36 | $2,004 | 30/06/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 86¢ | $-10 | $1,695 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | 74.8¢ | 35¢ | $-5,419 | $8,469 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3.2¢ | 3¢ | +$13 | $848 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5.2¢ | 5¢ | $-13 | $1,359 | 20/07/2026 |