Win rate
88.2%
487 W / 65 L
Total PnL
$3,128
realized $-2,232 · unrealized $5,360
Portfolio
$5,360
volume $165,810
Predictions
630
4.2/day · avg $263
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 21/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 91% +$3,023
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 92¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | No | 94¢ | 81¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? | No | 97¢ | 95¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 6? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on April 5? | No | 94¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
Politics 100% +$310
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$181 | win |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| US inauguration on January 20? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will US gov sell Bitcoin before Trump inauguration? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Biden resign in 2024? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Other 80% +$244
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | No | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? | No | 34¢ | 90¢ | +$56 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 16¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 88¢ | 50¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? | Yes | 19¢ | 11¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Megaquake by June 30? | No | 70¢ | 81¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? | No | 81¢ | 58¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 89¢ | 88¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 82¢ | 81¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 51¢ | 50¢ | $-0 | loss |
Tech 100% +$130
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Meta (META) close above $630 on January 26? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on January 26? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $505 before 2026?? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on November 21? | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 17? | Up | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | win |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on November 10? | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Elections 100% +$26
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Economy 100% +$20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 83% +$18
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? | No | 89¢ | 98¢ | +$15 | win |
| Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Marriott International (MAR) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on November 21? | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on November 14? | Up | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Culture 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hoppers be the highest grossing movie this weekend? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Weather 75% $-35
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | Yes | 86¢ | 80¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 16? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
Geopolitics 84% $-321
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$209 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$5 | win |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | +$0 | win |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 90¢ | +$6 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 69¢ | 29¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 77¢ | 0¢ | $-192 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Sports 78% $-321
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Slovakia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Canada record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Lightning vs. Utah | Lightning | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Pacers vs. Thunder | Thunder | 94¢ | 0¢ | $-328 | loss |
| Jets vs. Blues | Jets | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $88 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $44 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $44 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $30 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $47 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 6? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $27 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 6? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on April 5? | No | 94.4¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $38 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 5? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $59 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 05/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 88.2¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $297 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $157 | 01/04/2026 |
| Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $30 | 01/04/2026 |
| Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $134 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $336 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $76 | 01/04/2026 |
| Megaquake by March 31? | No | 84.7¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $376 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 79.5¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $157 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 66.5¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 78.9¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $97 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 76.1¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $177 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 77.1¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $71 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $83 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $212 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $135 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $141 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $82 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $220 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $74 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $118 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $423 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $67 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $81 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $81 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 91.1¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 77.4¢ | 0¢ | $-192 | $194 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $78 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? | Yes | 32.5¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $36 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? | Yes | 53.1¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $59 | 22/03/2026 |