Win rate
62.2%
23 W / 14 L
Total PnL
$574
realized $56 · unrealized $518
Portfolio
$518
volume $13,718
Predictions
81
2.2/day · avg $169
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 67% +$344
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 44¢ | 80¢ | +$65 | win |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | Yes | 16¢ | 10¢ | +$0 | — |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 21¢ | 28¢ | +$14 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 32¢ | 75¢ | +$37 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 56¢ | 52¢ | $-11 | loss |
Other 67% +$88
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 34¢ | 78¢ | +$82 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 46¢ | 55¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | Yes | 24¢ | 4¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
Politics 50% +$78
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 70¢ | 89¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 7¢ | $-40 | loss |
Crypto 50% +$16
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | Up | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | Down | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Tech 0% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 21? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
Recent Trades (38)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 47.5¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $74 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $82 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 59.9¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $201 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $65 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 85.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 49.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 29.4¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | Yes | 44.9¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 21? | No | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $50 | 22/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | Up | 44.5¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $30 | 17/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | Down | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? | No | 61.3¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $27 | 13/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 34.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $23 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? | Yes | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | $-37 | $150 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 58.6¢ | 8¢ | $-4 | $30 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | No | 68.7¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $80 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 65.3¢ | 80¢ | +$22 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 65¢ | $-2 | $48 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | Yes | 56.3¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | $144 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 32.2¢ | 75¢ | +$37 | $71 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 18.2¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | $40 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 74.9¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $121 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 68.2¢ | 71¢ | +$7 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 55¢ | +$1 | $37 | 30/04/2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 4¢ | $-3 | $39 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 55.8¢ | 52¢ | $-11 | $80 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $70 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 41.8¢ | 7¢ | $-40 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 28¢ | +$14 | $40 | 31/05/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 34.1¢ | 78¢ | +$82 | $86 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 53.2¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $41 | 31/05/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 10¢ | +$0 | $30 | 31/05/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 43.9¢ | 80¢ | +$65 | $80 | 30/06/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 69.8¢ | 89¢ | $-1 | $63 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 52.4¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $66 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $50 | 31/12/2026 |