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0x8d7D6B2b2fF4A40A15Bb685FA50399BB24759021-1727158785744
0x8d7d6b2b2ff4a40a15bb685fa50399bb24759021 · polymarket profile ↗
Win rate
57.1%
40 W / 30 L
Total PnL
$113
realized $-433 · unrealized $546
Portfolio
$546
volume $15,836
Predictions
145
2.8/day · avg $109
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 24/09/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 55% +$65
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 47¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 59¢ | 30¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 82¢ | 98¢ | +$4 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 71¢ | 90¢ | +$4 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 85¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 78¢ | 54¢ | $-26 | loss |
Politics 60% +$25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 50¢ | 83¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 43¢ | 38¢ | +$10 | win |
Other 83% +$14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Xi Jinping out before October? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 50% $-21
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 93.8¢ | 9¢ | $-37 | $47 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 90.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $36 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 91.3¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 92.2¢ | 10¢ | $-25 | $28 | 07/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 37.5¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 83.2¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $139 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? | No | 41.2¢ | 0¢ | +$54 | $74 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | $40 | 31/12/2025 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $30 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year? | No | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? | Yes | 90.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $27 | 31/12/2025 |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $25 | 31/12/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? | Yes | 45.4¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $35 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 71.8¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | $86 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? | No | 44.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $47 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? | No | 43.2¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $26 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $48 | 31/10/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 31/10/2025 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $26 | 31/10/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? | Yes | 23.3¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | $52 | 31/10/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $169 | 30/09/2025 |
| Xi Jinping out before October? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $38 | 30/09/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $130 | 30/09/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? | Yes | 32.6¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $73 | 30/09/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? | Yes | 26.3¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | $90 | 15/09/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | $-31 | $190 | 15/09/2025 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $42 | 01/09/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $184 | 31/08/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? | No | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $22 | 31/08/2025 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? | No | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 31/08/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | Yes | 26.8¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $23 | 31/08/2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? | Yes | 85.7¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $188 | 31/08/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $49 | 31/08/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? | Yes | 68.3¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $41 | 31/08/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $116 | 15/08/2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? | Yes | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $73 | 15/08/2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? | No | 27.5¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $41 | 15/08/2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $50 | 10/08/2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? | No | 37.1¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $55 | 10/08/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | No | 58.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $41 | 31/07/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31? | Yes | 92.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $46 | 30/06/2025 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? | No | 69.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 30/06/2025 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 89.0¢ | 62¢ | $-15 | $185 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 78.4¢ | 54¢ | $-26 | $125 | 22/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 64.6¢ | 92¢ | +$30 | $94 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 35.0¢ | 35¢ | $-9 | $70 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 96.3¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $67 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 38.9¢ | 62¢ | +$22 | $97 | 30/04/2026 |