Win rate
81.8%
18 W / 4 L
Total PnL
$14
realized $-1,031 · unrealized $1,045
Portfolio
$1,045
volume $2,803
Predictions
37
1.2/day · avg $76
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 83% +$26
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$9 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 63¢ | 66¢ | +$18 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 52¢ | 54¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 8¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 76¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
Economy 50% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 69¢ | 99¢ | +$166 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 50¢ | 1¢ | $-164 | loss |
Tech 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 75% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 4.7 released by May 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 82¢ | 44¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (22)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $78 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $213 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 10/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? | No | 96.1¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $49 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 62.4¢ | 8¢ | $-6 | $78 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 68.6¢ | 99¢ | +$166 | $373 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 50.0¢ | 1¢ | $-164 | $167 | 29/04/2026 |
| Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? | No | 99.0¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $36 | 29/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 66¢ | +$18 | $292 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 51.8¢ | 54¢ | +$1 | $82 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026? | No | 65.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $23 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 86¢ | +$2 | $28 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $27 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $102 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 81.8¢ | 44¢ | $-4 | $60 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 88.7¢ | 94¢ | +$9 | $180 | 30/06/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by May 31? | Yes | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $67 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 91.2¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | $70 | 31/12/2026 |