Win rate
58.1%
104 W / 75 L
Total PnL
$-168
realized $-2,396 · unrealized $2,228
Portfolio
$2,228
volume $164,944
Predictions
790
7.1/day · avg $209
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 21/01/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Tech 100% +$109
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 69¢ | 71¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 58¢ | 66¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Culture 67% +$76
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Miles Caton win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will ARC Raiders win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2025 Steam Awards? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Soundtrack in the 2025 Steam Awards? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Economy 100% +$27
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 26¢ | +$3 | win |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 63¢ | 74¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 16¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Esports 100% +$27
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) | T1 | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner | Top Esports | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
Crypto 70% +$14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | No | 32¢ | 79¢ | +$23 | win |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | No | 81¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in April 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 83¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | Down | 80¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | Down | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET | Down | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Weather 75% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or below on February 13? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 15? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November 14? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 12? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Mentions 50% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | No | 43¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
Elections 75% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 29¢ | 8¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Jeannette Jara and Johannes Kaiser advance to the runoff? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Politics 59% $-11
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 34¢ | 27¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 9¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 63¢ | 72¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 24¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 36¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Taylor Wettach be the Democratic Nominee for IA-01? | No | 88¢ | 98¢ | +$5 | win |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $-6 | loss |
Geopolitics 55% $-18
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | No | 49¢ | 49¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | +$1 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 27¢ | 22¢ | +$15 | win |
| Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 38¢ | 28¢ | +$1 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 36¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | — |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 64¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | — |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
Other 57% $-87
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 6¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Brevis FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 24¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 30¢ | +$2 | win |
| SBF released from custody in 2026? | No | 50¢ | 96¢ | +$278 | win |
| SBF released from custody in 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 4¢ | $-278 | loss |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | No | 66¢ | 64¢ | $-4 | loss |
Finance 15% $-120
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKX IPO in 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 14¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 28¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 12¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 74¢ | 88¢ | $-14 | loss |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 62¢ | 66¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will United Bankshares (UBSI) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 72¢ | 78¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 32¢ | 28¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Infosys (INFY) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 36¢ | 29¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will PG&E (PCG) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 46¢ | 42¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will T-Mobile US (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | $-1 | loss |
Sports 20% $-125
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 84¢ | $-24 | loss |
| OKC breaks NBA single-season wins record? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Maddison Inglis vs Yafan Wang | Wang | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Spread: Oilers (-1.5) | Oilers | 98¢ | 0¢ | $-84 | loss |
| Oilers vs. Kraken | Kraken | 68¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $587 | 12/04/2026 |
| OKC breaks NBA single-season wins record? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $514 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $408 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | 52.7¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $37 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $29 | 01/04/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 50.8¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $275 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026? | No | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | Yes | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $164 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $1,105 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 18.2¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $54 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? | Yes | 75.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 67.5¢ | 88¢ | $-2 | $274 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | Yes | 15.6¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $67 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $183 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | No | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $744 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Sudan" in March? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 79.5¢ | 100¢ | $-45 | $478 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | No | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31? | No | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | $315 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026? | Yes | 39.5¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $32 | 28/03/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? | Up | 57.5¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $58 | 23/03/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23? | Up | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $87 | 23/03/2026 |
| Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones | Kentucky Wildcats | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $660 | 22/03/2026 |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Up | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $59 | 21/03/2026 |
| Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $420 | 21/03/2026 |
| VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini | VCU Rams | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $340 | 21/03/2026 |
| Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide | Hofstra Pride | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $140 | 20/03/2026 |
| Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers | Miami (OH) RedHawks | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $170 | 20/03/2026 |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 19/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $97 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | No | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $21 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 41.1¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $329 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 58.6¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | $1,936 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | No | 43.4¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $87 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 48.8¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $98 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will Miles Caton win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards? | No | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $76 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 54.1¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $43 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | Yes | 77.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $26 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Roger Goodell in February 2026? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $27 | 28/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | Down | 80.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 19/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | Down | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $82 | 16/02/2026 |