smolchungus

Geopolitics 44% +$1,031 $7,493 vol · 20 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	43¢	69¢	$-17	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	57¢	31¢	$-19	loss
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	45¢	10¢	+$0	—
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	72¢	96¢	+$0	—
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	31¢	6¢	+$1	win
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?	No	59¢	96¢	$-3	loss
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	67¢	94¢	$-2	loss
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?	Yes	40¢	100¢	+$7	win
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026?	No	38¢	0¢	$-2	loss

Culture 33% +$5 $249 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 9m?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 8.5m?	No	68¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?	No	70¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?	No	60¢	100¢	$-7	loss
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?	Yes	41¢	100¢	$-4	loss

Esports 0% $-1 $27 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs JiJieHao (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group C	JiJieHao	36¢	0¢	$-1	loss

Tech 0% $-4 $70 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	58¢	62¢	$-0	loss
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	43¢	38¢	$-0	loss
Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10?	No	40¢	0¢	$-2	loss

Economy 50% $-4 $183 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?	Yes	49¢	0¢	+$0	win
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?	No	51¢	100¢	$-5	loss

Mentions 50% $-14 $95 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kanye tweet again by March 31?	Yes	22¢	100¢	$-27	loss
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	No	55¢	100¢	+$13	win

Crypto 0% $-47 $97 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?	No	68¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will Melania say "UN" or "United Nations" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24?	Yes	47¢	0¢	$-45	loss

Elections 8% $-77 $1,092 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	60¢	90¢	+$0	—
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	40¢	10¢	$-2	loss
Will turnout in the 2026 Danish general elections be between 85% and 90%?	No	66¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Green Left win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	69¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	No	70¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Liberal Alliance win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	61¢	0¢	$-11	loss
Will Green Left win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	No	32¢	0¢	$-17	loss
Will Liberal Alliance win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	No	36¢	100¢	$-36	loss
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Yes	64¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	No	36¢	0¢	$-2	loss

Other 0% $-88 $2,295 vol · 17 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?	No	40¢	82¢	$-2	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	44¢	32¢	$-0	loss
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	74¢	89¢	$-1	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	64¢	68¢	$-1	loss
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	67¢	99¢	$-30	loss
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026?	Yes	40¢	0¢	$-0	loss
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	70¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?	Yes	36¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?	No	63¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	No	29¢	100¢	$-3	loss

Politics 30% $-156 $1,366 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	58¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?	No	57¢	100¢	+$38	win
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?	Yes	40¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026?	Yes	43¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?	No	54¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?	Yes	48¢	0¢	$-0	loss
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?	No	34¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-175	loss
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	No	85¢	100¢	+$38	win
Will Daniel Crenshaw be the Republican Nominee for TX-02?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-52	loss

Weather 83% $-1,236 $57,382 vol · 428 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 20?	No	91¢	99¢	+$2	win
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 20?	No	96¢	98¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on April 20?	No	95¢	98¢	+$5	win
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 20?	No	94¢	94¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 20?	No	97¢	97¢	$-0	loss
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 20?	No	93¢	94¢	+$3	win
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 20?	No	90¢	90¢	$-0	loss
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 20?	No	97¢	93¢	$-2	loss
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 20?	No	85¢	82¢	$-1	loss
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 20?	No	91¢	97¢	+$10	win