Win rate
56.1%
812 W / 634 L
Total PnL
$21,206
realized $13,102 · unrealized $8,105
Portfolio
$8,105
volume $968,044
Predictions
2,108
10.9/day · avg $459
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/03/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 63% +$11,016
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 53¢ | 78¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | No | 34¢ | 30¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 71¢ | 99¢ | +$249 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 36¢ | 45¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | Yes | 22¢ | 8¢ | $-63 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 6¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
Other 52% +$4,196
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale? | Yes | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$144 | win |
| Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | loss |
| Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | loss |
| US strike on Mexico by January 31? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 41¢ | 40¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
Esports 50% +$573
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Top Esports | 26¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | DN SOOPers | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 | Team WE | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-93 | loss |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | G2 Esports | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | loss |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | BNK FEARX | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana | LNG Esports | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner | Hanwha Life Esports | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | Team WE | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | — |
| LoL: LNG Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 1 | LNG Esports | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | loss |
Sports 64% +$400
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | Yes | 23¢ | 21¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | win |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs | JD Gaming | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | JD Gaming | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Weibo Gaming | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | loss |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Anyones Legend | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$39 | win |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Bilibili Gaming | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | win |
| LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | loss |
Crypto 59% +$247
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 | Yes | 42¢ | 42¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first? | Bitcoin | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-209 | loss |
| Will Melania say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET | Down | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19? | No | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$163 | win |
| Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | loss |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | loss |
Finance 64% +$230
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Snowflake say "AWS" during earnings call? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Dell say "PowerEdge / Power Edge" during earnings call? | No | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | win |
| Will EA say "Skate" during earnings call? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will anyone say "Anime" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will anyone say "Grand Theft Auto" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? | Yes | 23¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Economy 38% +$186
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession in 2025? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$127 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | win |
| Will Bryan Johnson say "Polymarket" while tripping balls? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 15+ times during speech on October 14? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 15+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 22? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Tech 57% +$167
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-225 | loss |
| Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-247 | loss |
| Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Yes | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | win |
| Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| OpenAI social app in 2025? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| OpenAI browser in 2025? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | loss |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
Geopolitics 55% +$94
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$438 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 69¢ | +$2 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 30¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$490 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 24¢ | 100¢ | +$160 | win |
| US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-422 | loss |
Mentions 72% +$82
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will Stephen Hawking be named in the Epstein survivors' list? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? | No | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | loss |
Elections 50% $-26
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | $-1,254 | loss |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$1,254 | win |
| Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Weather 40% $-41
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19? | Yes | 13¢ | 9¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will a hurricane form by September 30? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will a hurricane form by September 30? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Culture 29% $-94
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MrBeast say "Movie" or "Film" during his next video? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | loss |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $65m? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner | ThunderTalk Gaming | 46.0¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $46 | 17/04/2026 |
| LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana | Oh My God | 9.7¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | $76 | 17/04/2026 |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner | T1 | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $60 | 17/04/2026 |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | T1 | 32.0¢ | 77¢ | +$176 | $128 | 17/04/2026 |
| LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner | JD Gaming | 49.1¢ | 57¢ | +$18 | $147 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 86.0¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | $31 | 17/04/2026 |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Top Esports | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $26 | 16/04/2026 |
| LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner | Team WE | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $44 | 16/04/2026 |
| LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | DN SOOPers | 9.3¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $32 | 16/04/2026 |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | Bilibili Gaming | 40.4¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $101 | 16/04/2026 |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 29.8¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | $51 | 16/04/2026 |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $28 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 46.8¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $127 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 64.1¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $133 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $360 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 13.5¢ | 0¢ | $-149 | $148 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner | BNK FEARX | 31.6¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | $65 | 15/04/2026 |
| LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | BNK FEARX | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $24 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Paper tiger" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | Yes | 48.8¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | $87 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner | Team WE | 11.9¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | $71 | 14/04/2026 |
| LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 | Team WE | 48.2¢ | 0¢ | $-93 | $111 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $26 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-182 | $182 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | No | 54.5¢ | 100¢ | +$325 | $441 | 12/04/2026 |
| LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner | Team Vitality | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $5,619 | 12/04/2026 |
| LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | Team Vitality | 52.3¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $73 | 12/04/2026 |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $54 | 12/04/2026 |
| LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Oh My God | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $4,995 | 12/04/2026 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 1? | Over | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $85 | 12/04/2026 |
| Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $80 | 12/04/2026 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1? | Over | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1? | Over | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $28 | 12/04/2026 |
| LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner | LGD Gaming | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $42 | 12/04/2026 |
| LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner | Team Vitality | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $102 | 12/04/2026 |
| LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana | Oh My God | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-94 | $94 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 21.1¢ | 0¢ | $-212 | $245 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 12, 2026? | Yes | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | $52 | 12/04/2026 |
| LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | Oh My God | 7.4¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $41 | 12/04/2026 |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | Weibo Gaming | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $40 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 1¢ | $-88 | $90 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | Yes | 18.7¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $72 | 12/04/2026 |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | G2 Esports | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | $64 | 11/04/2026 |
| LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner | SK Gaming | 12.2¢ | 0¢ | $-94 | $96 | 11/04/2026 |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | JD Gaming | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 10/04/2026 |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner | Anyones Legend | 3.7¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | $91 | 10/04/2026 |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner | Anyones Legend | 8.3¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | $90 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 9.7¢ | 0¢ | $-304 | $118 | 10/04/2026 |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | BNK FEARX | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 10/04/2026 |