Win rate
50.9%
1330 W / 1282 L
Total PnL
$4,166
realized $-5,611 · unrealized $9,777
Portfolio
$9,777
volume $3,944,110
Predictions
3,929
44.3/day · avg $1,004
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/03/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 52% +$2,349
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-210 | loss |
| GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 40¢ | 32¢ | +$5 | win |
| Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$332 | win |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 20¢ | 28¢ | +$56 | win |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Yes | 34¢ | 44¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 37¢ | 30¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Unitas Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? | Yes | 30¢ | 31¢ | +$3 | win |
| Yellow FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-79 | loss |
Tech 60% +$1,884
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 41¢ | 37¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | No | 32¢ | 70¢ | +$20 | win |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | Yes | 39¢ | 38¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | No | 60¢ | 59¢ | +$15 | win |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | No | 42¢ | 74¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | No | 31¢ | 8¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 40¢ | 29¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 15¢ | 10¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 27¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | Yes | 37¢ | 41¢ | +$8 | win |
Elections 49% +$1,553
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 14¢ | 24¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party win the NM-02 House seat? | Yes | 29¢ | 23¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat? | No | 22¢ | 7¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 55¢ | 64¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat? | No | 10¢ | 18¢ | +$28 | win |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 36¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat? | No | 29¢ | 33¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? | No | 34¢ | 28¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the Republican Party win the ND-AL House seat? | No | 8¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 51¢ | 55¢ | $-1 | loss |
Politics 53% +$766
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | Yes | 23¢ | 24¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | +$162 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | Yes | 5¢ | 7¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 34¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 16¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 10¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit Delaware in 2026? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | +$2 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 39¢ | +$25 | win |
Geopolitics 53% +$497
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 16¢ | 10¢ | +$32 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 48¢ | 70¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 9¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | Yes | 28¢ | 16¢ | $-4 | loss |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 16¢ | $-7 | loss |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Yes | 25¢ | 18¢ | $-20 | loss |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | Yes | 27¢ | 9¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 8¢ | $-28 | loss |
Esports 50% +$177
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 | 3DMAX | 23¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Series 5 Playoffs | GenOne | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 | B8 | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 | B8 | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$155 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Isurus vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage | UNO MILLE | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Sinners (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | Team Nemesis | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| LoL: Vantex Esports vs The Otter Side (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs | Vantex Esports | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - BC Game Masters Group Stage | CSDIILIT | 50¢ | 50¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs Team Novaq (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Group Stage | Lazer Cats | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - European Pro League Series 5 Playoffs | Oxuji Esports | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | loss |
Economy 55% $-12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30? | Yes | 30¢ | 14¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 6¢ | 1¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 38¢ | 8¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 17¢ | 1¢ | $-102 | loss |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | No | 42¢ | 4¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 19¢ | 1¢ | $-28 | loss |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 61¢ | 9¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
Mentions 67% $-15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 20 to February 27, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 9–16? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
Finance 49% $-92
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | No | 20¢ | 9¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 24¢ | 94¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | No | 24¢ | 6¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 35¢ | 12¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B? | Yes | 28¢ | 22¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 75¢ | +$158 | win |
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B? | No | 79¢ | 78¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 53¢ | 81¢ | +$3 | win |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? | Yes | 27¢ | 22¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | Yes | 11¢ | 8¢ | $-3 | loss |
Culture 38% $-163
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026? | No | 31¢ | 10¢ | $-30 | loss |
| New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | No | 28¢ | 46¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April? | No | 24¢ | 90¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 8.5m? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | loss |
Sports 45% $-400
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Yes | 15¢ | 1¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 19¢ | 3¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award? | Yes | 32¢ | 8¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 6¢ | 1¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Mets | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 34¢ | 40¢ | $-29 | loss |
Weather 34% $-413
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 6? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8? | No | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? | No | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? | Yes | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Crypto 52% $-964
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 20¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 22¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 64¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? | No | 21¢ | 86¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 95¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the AAVE token alignment proposal pass? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | Yes | 76.3¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $785 | 17/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $404 | 17/04/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | No | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $200 | 17/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? | No | 20.6¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $482 | 17/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | No | 27.4¢ | 13¢ | +$10 | $52 | 15/04/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | Yes | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $39 | 15/04/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | No | 39.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $57 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? | No | 40.6¢ | 100¢ | +$201 | $145 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? | No | 53.3¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $116 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $157 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 48.3¢ | 1¢ | +$58 | $723 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $38 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $60 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 35.6¢ | 1¢ | $-0 | $608 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 110 seats? | No | 57.2¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 1¢ | $-12 | $770 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 31.2¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $114 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? | No | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $80 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 34.0¢ | 40¢ | $-29 | $79 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 20.6¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $87 | 12/04/2026 |
| AHL: San Diego Gulls vs. Bakersfield Condors | Bakersfield Condors | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-260 | $402 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats? | Yes | 22.5¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | $68 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 17.3¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $44 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 14¢ | +$8 | $38 | 12/04/2026 |
| AHL: Abbotsford Canucks vs. Calgary Wranglers | Abbotsford Canucks | 46.5¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $40 | 11/04/2026 |
| AHL: San Jose Barracuda vs. Henderson Silver Knights | Henderson Silver Knights | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $20 | 11/04/2026 |
| AHL: San Jose Barracuda vs. Henderson Silver Knights | San Jose Barracuda | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | $224 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in March? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $80 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in March? | Yes | 33.6¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $107 | 10/04/2026 |
| AHL: Henderson Silver Knights vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds | Henderson Silver Knights | 52.9¢ | 100¢ | +$176 | $225 | 09/04/2026 |
| AHL: Tucson Roadrunners vs. Bakersfield Condors | Tucson Roadrunners | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-201 | $206 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | Yes | 21.1¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $54 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 3, 2026? | No | 60.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $35 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | Yes | 8.6¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $24 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026? | Yes | 27.8¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $64 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3? | No | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $39 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? | No | 20.9¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $95 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | No | 20.2¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $159 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $60 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | $94 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will 01.xyz reach $5B in total volume by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 16.6¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $54 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the United States of America win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $69 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $20 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? | No | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $29 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA reach $208 in March? | Yes | 16.9¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $21 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Team Human or Team AI win the Aster trading competition? | Human | 8.4¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $50 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | Yes | 44.9¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $165 | 01/04/2026 |
| Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? | Yes | 29.7¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $995 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? | Yes | 16.9¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | $128 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | $557 | 01/04/2026 |