Win rate
53.2%
91 W / 80 L
Total PnL
$-4,143
realized $-5,432 · unrealized $1,288
Portfolio
$1,288
volume $556,840
Predictions
1,024
19.9/day · avg $544
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 18/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Culture 71% +$157
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | win |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will "Leo" be said at the Oscars? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Economy 100% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference? | Yes | 75¢ | 76¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 20% $-45
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? | Yes | 84¢ | 72¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference? | No | 80¢ | 74¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Politics 64% $-99
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 66¢ | 74¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during the next White House press briefing? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in April? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 54¢ | 99¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Trump say "Jesus" in April? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 38¢ | 1¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "China" during the next White House press briefing? | Yes | 80¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 72¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump name "Friedrich" or "Merz" in April? | Yes | 69¢ | 68¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week? (April 19) | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Other 44% $-633
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 73¢ | 72¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 33¢ | 34¢ | +$2 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 82¢ | 79¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? | Yes | 56¢ | 57¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 94¢ | +$10 | win |
| Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? | No | 74¢ | 96¢ | +$10 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 66¢ | 47¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
Crypto 33% $-895
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Melania say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET | Down | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET | Down | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET | Up | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET | Up | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | Up | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET | Up | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Up | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | Up | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-117 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET | Up | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-155 | loss |
Geopolitics 53% $-1,707
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 43¢ | 72¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-142 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $-2 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 66¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 76¢ | 90¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30? | No | 74¢ | 82¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 16/04/2026 |
| Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 16/04/2026 |
| Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 53.4¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $108 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 69.2¢ | 98¢ | +$13 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | Yes | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15? | No | 89.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-146 | $150 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-148 | $150 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 86.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? | No | 79.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Fake news" during Fox interview on Wednesday? | Yes | 62.8¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $50 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $100 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "America" or "US" 7+ times during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $100 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | Yes | 72.9¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $25 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 67.3¢ | 99¢ | +$53 | $111 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 69.0¢ | 99¢ | +$30 | $168 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 77.3¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $35 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 32.0¢ | 1¢ | $-3 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 34.8¢ | 1¢ | $-49 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 74.2¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 54.5¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Out of NATO" or "Withdraw" during events with Rutte? | Yes | 65.1¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 08/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 61.7¢ | 88¢ | +$15 | $65 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 62.5¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $50 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Jerusalem" this week? (April 5) | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $20 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Sunday" this week? (April 5) | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $25 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 44.7¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $80 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $100 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $58 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 47.1¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $173 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in March 2026? | No | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 61.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 56.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $41 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 69.1¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | No | 73.1¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 29.9¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 14.9¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? | No | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | Yes | 21.1¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 25.8¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |