Win rate
59.3%
108 W / 74 L
Total PnL
$1,055
realized $-766 · unrealized $1,821
Portfolio
$1,821
volume $242,120
Predictions
158
47.2/day · avg $1,532
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 12/04/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Elections 68% +$1,097
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 76¢ | 78¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 6¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 55¢ | 56¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 56¢ | 56¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 60¢ | 61¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 59¢ | 57¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $-1 | loss |
Other 54% +$55
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 34¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 59¢ | 62¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 57¢ | 52¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 38¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 24¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 22% +$23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 68¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 32¢ | 32¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 73¢ | 94¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Tech 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
Politics 50% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 78¢ | 79¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 73¢ | 72¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 40¢ | 40¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 41¢ | 42¢ | +$0 | — |
Sports 54% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 69¢ | 70¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 15¢ | 15¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 83¢ | 85¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 78¢ | 77¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | No | 95¢ | 92¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | Yes | 12¢ | 8¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 22¢ | 23¢ | +$1 | win |
Economy 67% $-5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 10¢ | 6¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 83¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $1,137 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $1,116 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $990 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 5.8¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $42 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $1,243 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $51 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $136 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $96 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 88.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $23 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $88 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $30 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $149 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 94¢ | +$83 | $63 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 25.2¢ | 23¢ | +$75 | $2,063 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 73.1¢ | 77¢ | +$67 | $5,777 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? | No | 18.5¢ | 13¢ | +$52 | $160 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 75.8¢ | 77¢ | +$35 | $1,097 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 23¢ | +$28 | $1,461 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 74.2¢ | 77¢ | +$22 | $4,301 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 75.5¢ | 75¢ | +$22 | $1,045 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 95.7¢ | 96¢ | +$21 | $862 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 96.3¢ | 99¢ | +$15 | $900 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | No | 6.9¢ | 13¢ | +$12 | $32 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%? | Yes | 13.5¢ | 14¢ | +$11 | $55 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 96.8¢ | 99¢ | +$11 | $185 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | No | 79.2¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $103 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 99¢ | +$7 | $1,342 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | Yes | 93.3¢ | 87¢ | +$5 | $416 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 10.2¢ | 4¢ | +$5 | $88 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 98.1¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | $1,149 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | $262 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $156 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $54 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $58 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $27 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $64 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 9.0¢ | 1¢ | +$1 | $110 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%? | No | 97.7¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $123 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 91.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $55 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $59 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $78 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $342 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 32.0¢ | 1¢ | $-0 | $36 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 96.6¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | $118 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $29 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $58 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $129 | 12/04/2026 |