Win rate
38.8%
19 W / 30 L
Total PnL
$331
realized $-334 · unrealized $664
Portfolio
$664
volume $93,026
Predictions
98
4.3/day · avg $949
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 40% +$298
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 20¢ | 36¢ | +$32 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 76¢ | 64¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 21¢ | 26¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 70¢ | 66¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 36¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | No | 60¢ | 64¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | Yes | 51¢ | 4¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | No | 83¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 25¢ | 24¢ | $-8 | loss |
Politics 43% +$78
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 64¢ | 60¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 8¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 52¢ | 72¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 44¢ | 28¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 49¢ | 64¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 21¢ | 14¢ | +$18 | win |
Sports 33% +$37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | Toronto Blue Jays | 42¢ | 42¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins | Cincinnati Reds | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
Elections 0% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | loss |
Geopolitics 38% $-8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 30¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 19¢ | 22¢ | $-6 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 81¢ | 78¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | No | 55¢ | 13¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 68¢ | 87¢ | +$52 | win |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | No | 78¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Yes | 20¢ | 5¢ | $-3 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 38¢ | +$16 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 62¢ | $-7 | loss |
Crypto 40% $-23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 38¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Recent Trades (49)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 14¢ | +$18 | $25 | 21/04/2026 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins | Cincinnati Reds | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $32 | 25/04/2026 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | Toronto Blue Jays | 42.0¢ | 42¢ | $-2 | $150 | 26/04/2026 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $21 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | Yes | 7.2¢ | 9¢ | $-77 | $78 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | Yes | 30.1¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | $96 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | Yes | 17.2¢ | 8¢ | $-21 | $40 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 43.3¢ | 16¢ | $-41 | $214 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 52.2¢ | 72¢ | +$10 | $45 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 44.3¢ | 28¢ | $-2 | $21 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? | No | 72.5¢ | 90¢ | +$8 | $36 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 74.5¢ | 62¢ | $-7 | $33 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 49.4¢ | 64¢ | $-3 | $68 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 28.9¢ | 38¢ | +$16 | $40 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 67.4¢ | 84¢ | +$15 | $516 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 45.9¢ | 36¢ | +$78 | $226 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 25.2¢ | 24¢ | $-8 | $104 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | No | 66.7¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $40 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 76.0¢ | 76¢ | +$13 | $172 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | No | 72.0¢ | 91¢ | +$268 | $366 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | No | 83.0¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | $59 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | No | 78.0¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | $25 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 5¢ | $-3 | $44 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 4¢ | $-13 | $74 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? | Yes | 13.2¢ | 12¢ | $-6 | $29 | 01/05/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | Yes | 33.7¢ | 36¢ | +$15 | $39 | 01/05/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? | Yes | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $69 | 01/05/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? | No | 10.2¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 01/05/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | No | 55.4¢ | 13¢ | $-28 | $46 | 15/05/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 68.5¢ | 87¢ | +$52 | $171 | 15/05/2026 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 38.2¢ | 36¢ | $-1 | $39 | 16/05/2026 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | No | 60.3¢ | 64¢ | $-1 | $105 | 16/05/2026 |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 64.0¢ | 60¢ | $-1 | $53 | 26/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | No | 39.3¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $31 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 52.1¢ | 60¢ | +$6 | $30 | 31/05/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 75.9¢ | 64¢ | $-7 | $75 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 25.7¢ | 28¢ | +$1 | $86 | 31/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 19.2¢ | 22¢ | $-6 | $50 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 26¢ | $-1 | $20 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 82.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $53 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 74.0¢ | 72¢ | $-1 | $105 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 80.9¢ | 74¢ | $-1 | $59 | 31/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 81.5¢ | 78¢ | $-0 | $71 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 70.0¢ | 66¢ | $-0 | $76 | 31/05/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 19.7¢ | 36¢ | +$32 | $67 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 12.2¢ | 12¢ | $-0 | $25 | 01/07/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 30¢ | +$1 | $34 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 38¢ | $-1 | $20 | 01/01/2027 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | $21 | 07/11/2028 |