pakukudolphi

Geopolitics 54% +$94,611 $447,242 vol · 41 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	84¢	100¢	$-2,005	loss
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	16¢	18¢	+$2	win
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	26¢	22¢	+$83	win
Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	21¢	12¢	$-50	loss
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	71¢	78¢	+$483	win
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	No	33¢	100¢	+$2,642	win
Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-160	loss
Military action against Iran ends by April 8, 2026?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-98	loss
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	Yes	13¢	23¢	+$198	win
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?	Yes	15¢	0¢	+$6	win

Politics 57% +$1,313 $46,423 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	Yes	48¢	100¢	+$398	win
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	17¢	26¢	+$104	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	34¢	8¢	$-692	loss
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$1,515	win
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on July 25?	No	54¢	100¢	+$46	win

Other 60% +$288 $26,006 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$-240	loss
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	21¢	10¢	+$15	win
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	No	52¢	100¢	+$677	win
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	33¢	18¢	+$27	win

Sports 23% $-617 $1,017 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Twins vs. Dodgers	Twins	40¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Athletics vs. Rangers	Athletics	47¢	0¢	$-47	loss
Astros vs. Diamondbacks	Diamondbacks	58¢	0¢	$-58	loss
Cardinals vs. Rockies	Rockies	41¢	0¢	$-62	loss
Brewers vs. Mariners	Mariners	52¢	0¢	$-104	loss
Reds vs. Nationals	Nationals	47¢	100¢	+$106	win
Tigers vs. Pirates	Pirates	55¢	100¢	+$45	win
Red Sox vs. Phillies	Phillies	67¢	100¢	+$33	win
Giants vs. Braves	Giants	47¢	0¢	$-47	loss
Angels vs. Mets	Angels	37¢	0¢	$-56	loss

Elections 50% $-2,609 $13,539 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	56¢	92¢	+$1,174	win
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	58¢	66¢	+$188	win
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	No	18¢	100¢	$-108	loss
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Yes	65¢	0¢	$-3,862	loss

Finance 50% $-2,688 $4,648 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	Yes	68¢	0¢	$-2,711	loss
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?	No	60¢	100¢	+$23	win