Win rate
72.1%
106 W / 41 L
Total PnL
$684,083
realized $46,867 · unrealized $637,216
Portfolio
$637,216
volume $5,962,495
Predictions
144
4.0/day · avg $41,406
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 75% +$670,185
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$73 | win |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-882 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-1,369 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68¢ | 76¢ | +$21,073 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 62¢ | 84¢ | +$10,583 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 91¢ | +$1,181 | win |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 86¢ | +$26 | win |
Other 68% +$16,456
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 88¢ | 48¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 66¢ | 66¢ | +$17 | win |
| Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | $-1,670 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $-286 | loss |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 96¢ | +$181 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | No | 92¢ | 97¢ | +$998 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 84¢ | 94¢ | +$69 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | $-6,703 | loss |
Elections 50% +$2,155
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$2,162 | win |
Sports 100% +$60
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 56¢ | 57¢ | +$60 | win |
Politics 40% $-7,836
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-7,151 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 91.7¢ | 98¢ | +$19 | $250 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 82.4¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $12,487 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 66.6¢ | 92¢ | $-6,165 | $78,642 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 84.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,162 | $12,166 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $981 | 12/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 51.9¢ | 91¢ | +$34,095 | $45,186 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 84.2¢ | 100¢ | +$8,150 | $43,779 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 66.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7,596 | $15,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | No | 77.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5,371 | $19,459 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 79.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3,238 | $15,721 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? | No | 74.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2,405 | $7,258 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | Yes | 86.2¢ | 100¢ | +$963 | $6,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$527 | $4,174 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | +$424 | $2,834 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$375 | $1,500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 72.2¢ | 100¢ | +$371 | $2,763 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$337 | $1,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 78.7¢ | 100¢ | +$320 | $1,281 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 28.3¢ | 0¢ | +$308 | $6,115 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? | No | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$230 | $7,200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$196 | $10,500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$148 | $5,600 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? | No | 77.1¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $1,500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | $850 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | $1,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $1,243 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $2,817 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $574 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $1,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $3,156 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $1,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $987 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 91.7¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $63 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $250 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 77.3¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $3,300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $3,300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 58.7¢ | 100¢ | $-45 | $1,436 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | 18.9¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | $409 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 68.1¢ | 0¢ | $-109 | $289 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 63.7¢ | 0¢ | $-684 | $3,500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 79.7¢ | 0¢ | $-915 | $4,116 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 86.4¢ | 100¢ | $-6,703 | $28,721 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 32.2¢ | 0¢ | $-7,151 | $19,434 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $200 | 15/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $-373 | $654 | 15/03/2026 |