Win rate
71.0%
49 W / 20 L
Total PnL
$376
realized $-1,218 · unrealized $1,594
Portfolio
$1,594
volume $14,557
Predictions
85
2.9/day · avg $171
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 16/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 79% +$168
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 42¢ | 74¢ | +$10 | win |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | +$0 | — |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 86¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 82¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 69¢ | +$13 | win |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 88¢ | +$3 | win |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Politics 80% +$95
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 77¢ | 60¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 62¢ | 99¢ | +$17 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 70¢ | 92¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15) | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
Economy 100% +$55
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
Sports 36% +$42
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.5%? | Yes | 22¢ | 14¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Spurs | 84¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | win |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Celtics | 86¢ | 87¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Spurs | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | win |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 80¢ | 80¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Suns vs. Thunder | Thunder | 88¢ | 88¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Pistons | 77¢ | 76¢ | $-0 | loss |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Celtics | 87¢ | 86¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 77¢ | 76¢ | $-0 | loss |
Crypto 100% +$30
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 86¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 64% $-59
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | No | 45¢ | 34¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | No | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Jimmy Lai released by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 97¢ | +$4 | win |
| Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? | No | 87¢ | 84¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | No | 72¢ | 86¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 71¢ | 46¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 77.0¢ | 76¢ | $-0 | $38 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? | Yes | 54.4¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | $163 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 78.9¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $79 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 70.8¢ | 98¢ | +$11 | $35 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $71 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 74.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $22 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $98 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $34 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 33.5¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | $81 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $36 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 88.0¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $66 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 56.3¢ | 15¢ | $-5 | $28 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $338 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | Yes | 74.8¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $41 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? | No | 52.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $314 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | Yes | 48.2¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 92¢ | +$11 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15) | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $515 | 15/03/2026 |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? | No | 68.0¢ | 57¢ | $-4 | $29 | 14/03/2026 |
| Suns vs. Thunder | Thunder | 88.0¢ | 88¢ | $-0 | $44 | 19/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Pistons | 77.0¢ | 76¢ | $-0 | $38 | 19/04/2026 |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Celtics | 87.0¢ | 86¢ | $-0 | $26 | 19/04/2026 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Spurs | 83.0¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | $42 | 20/04/2026 |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 80.5¢ | 80¢ | $-0 | $40 | 20/04/2026 |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Celtics | 85.8¢ | 87¢ | +$0 | $26 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 69.8¢ | 79¢ | +$2 | $35 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Spurs | 84.0¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | $42 | 22/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 74¢ | $-4 | $158 | 22/04/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | No | 71.0¢ | 96¢ | +$12 | $36 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? | Yes | 72.4¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $72 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 62.0¢ | 99¢ | +$17 | $31 | 30/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $35 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | No | 76.0¢ | 52¢ | +$10 | $38 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 59.3¢ | 60¢ | +$8 | $37 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 76.2¢ | 74¢ | +$3 | $38 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 92.0¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $46 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 71.0¢ | 56¢ | +$0 | $21 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 71.4¢ | 46¢ | +$0 | $31 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 77.0¢ | 60¢ | $-12 | $77 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 67.7¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $34 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 38¢ | $-9 | $36 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 80.0¢ | 94¢ | +$8 | $48 | 30/06/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | No | 72.0¢ | 86¢ | +$7 | $36 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $57 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $30 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | 92.0¢ | 97¢ | +$4 | $92 | 30/06/2026 |
| Jimmy Lai released by June 30? | No | 92.3¢ | 97¢ | +$4 | $92 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 93.7¢ | 97¢ | +$2 | $47 | 30/06/2026 |