Win rate
72.4%
131 W / 50 L
Total PnL
$-2,233
realized $-94,956 · unrealized $92,723
Portfolio
$92,723
volume $422,676
Predictions
188
5.2/day · avg $2,248
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/09/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 75% +$622
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | 81¢ | 83¢ | +$190 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 56¢ | 70¢ | +$110 | win |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 88¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$18 | win |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 86¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$125 | win |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$499 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-257 | loss |
Tech 100% +$414
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? | No | 91¢ | 96¢ | +$112 | win |
Elections 100% +$197
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Politics 67% +$33
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$54 | win |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
Finance 30% $-87
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? | No | 78¢ | 74¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B? | No | 72¢ | 62¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? | No | 86¢ | 80¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
Crypto 80% $-216
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 80¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 70¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 95¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 94¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 84¢ | $-66 | loss |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Tempo launch a token by December 31 2026? | No | 64¢ | 72¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 93¢ | +$26 | win |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 97¢ | +$3 | win |
Economy 80% $-329
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | Yes | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-1,337 | loss |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | win |
Other 70% $-2,888
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? | No | 77¢ | 72¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 78¢ | 68¢ | $-128 | loss |
| Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 97¢ | +$66 | win |
| StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 71¢ | 33¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $2M before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 96¢ | +$38 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-2,198 | loss |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-2,344 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$228 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-511 | loss |
| Paradex FDV above $5B one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? | Yes | 33.9¢ | 100¢ | +$847 | $489 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $45 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | Yes | 74.4¢ | 0¢ | $-1,337 | $1,339 | 17/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 73.2¢ | 0¢ | $-257 | $2,195 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will $PENGUIN reach $600M in Q1? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $282 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will $PENGUIN reach $400M in Q1? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $240 | 01/04/2026 |
| XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $372 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will $PENGUIN reach $1B in Q1? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $78 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethena reach $0.20 in March? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $381 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will $PENGUIN reach $800M in Q1? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $73 | 01/04/2026 |
| Solana all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $58 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $1,339 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $3,176 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $969 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy | Yes | 85.0¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | $4,250 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $160 in February? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $2,494 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Ethena reach $0.32 in February? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $340 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Ethena reach $0.20 in February? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $96 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Ethena reach $0.28 in February? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $102 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Ethena reach $0.24 in February? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $84 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $186 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | $2,889 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Lighter reach $4.00 in January? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | $910 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Ethena hit $0.41 in January? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $1,390 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $190 in January? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $1,015 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Ethena hit $0.33 in January? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $977 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $180 in January? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $405 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will XRP reach $2.80 in January? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $878 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Ethena hit $0.37 in January? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $747 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Lighter reach $5.00 in January? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $617 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $160 in January? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $451 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $150 in January? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $89 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $22 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? | No | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $1,527 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | Yes | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | $557 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $383 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $158 | 31/01/2026 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $328 | 28/01/2026 |
| Will Ethena reach $0.80 by December 31, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 78¢ | $-17 | $98 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Ethena reach $1.00 by December 31, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 86¢ | $-4 | $57 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | No | 81.5¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $260 | 31/12/2025 |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $186 | 31/12/2025 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | No | 88.0¢ | 66¢ | $-70 | $3,097 | 31/12/2025 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | No | 74.7¢ | 39¢ | $-351 | $3,408 | 31/12/2025 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | No | 89.0¢ | 78¢ | $-656 | $12,381 | 31/12/2025 |
| StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? | No | 98.9¢ | 97¢ | $-0 | $64 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 64.8¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | $420 | 01/01/1970 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | No | 96.9¢ | 97¢ | $-30 | $7,169 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $198 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $276 | 30/04/2026 |