fishka

Elections 100% +$48 $196 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	30¢	34¢	+$23	win
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	19¢	28¢	+$25	win

Geopolitics 67% +$19 $1,020 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	69¢	82¢	+$10	win
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	72¢	47¢	$-17	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	80¢	94¢	+$8	win
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	60¢	55¢	$-6	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	88¢	99¢	+$3	win
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	82¢	66¢	$-4	loss
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	97¢	100¢	+$10	win
Iran leadership change by March 31?	No	77¢	100¢	+$12	win

Other 50% $-46 $124 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	78¢	92¢	+$4	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	24¢	26¢	$-50	loss

Politics 25% $-177 $955 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	37¢	39¢	+$2	win
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	88¢	100¢	+$8	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	98¢	100¢	$-5	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-105	loss
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	83¢	88¢	$-6	loss
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	25¢	8¢	$-33	loss