Vacationing

Geopolitics 49% +$1,190 $22,916 vol · 51 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	29¢	30¢	$-10	loss
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	5¢	0¢	$-13	loss
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	5¢	1¢	$-56	loss
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$306	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	63¢	100¢	+$10	win
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	10¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Yes	23¢	16¢	+$0	win
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	10¢	6¢	$-12	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	11¢	8¢	$-15	loss
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	25¢	22¢	$-6	loss

Politics 25% $-54 $2,628 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	Yes	22¢	16¢	$-25	loss
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	11¢	15¢	$-18	loss
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$-10	loss
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	40¢	47¢	$-15	loss
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	18¢	17¢	+$30	win
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in April 2026?	Yes	49¢	45¢	$-4	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	31¢	46¢	$-31	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	98¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-9	loss
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-7	loss

Other 44% $-87 $2,737 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$-20	loss
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	10¢	4¢	+$4	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	51¢	37¢	+$41	win
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	21¢	6¢	$-11	loss
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	Yes	38¢	3¢	$-6	loss
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	1¢	0¢	$-113	loss
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?	No	58¢	100¢	+$23	win
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	99¢	99¢	+$4	win
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?	Yes	18¢	16¢	$-4	loss

Crypto 0% $-117 $173 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 17?	Yes	17¢	13¢	$-5	loss
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 14?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-58	loss
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 12?	No	9¢	0¢	$-54	loss