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0x86Dd5200572b3EAe548d8fd9E807b78468D41Af2-1768052013112
0x86dd5200572b3eae548d8fd9e807b78468d41af2 · polymarket profile ↗
Win rate
70.8%
393 W / 162 L
Total PnL
$995
realized $460 · unrealized $534
Portfolio
$534
volume $303,737
Predictions
413
20.6/day · avg $735
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 10/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 71% +$783
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 68¢ | +$10 | win |
| Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | Ceasefire | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 75¢ | 82¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 22¢ | 18¢ | +$1 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
Other 66% +$203
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | No | 66¢ | 66¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | Yes | 31¢ | 34¢ | $-1 | loss |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 72¢ | +$1 | win |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 44¢ | +$11 | win |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 63¢ | 56¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Yes | 65¢ | 66¢ | +$4 | win |
Crypto 86% +$73
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 56¢ | 64¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in April 2026? | No | 47¢ | 59¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in April 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 46¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will XRP reach $1.80 in February? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 81% +$60
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 83¢ | 83¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 94¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 47¢ | 44¢ | +$2 | win |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 78¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 54¢ | 56¢ | +$2 | win |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 68¢ | 64¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 70¢ | 64¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 34¢ | 36¢ | +$1 | win |
Politics 77% +$53
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 75¢ | 79¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 37¢ | 39¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit Alaska in 2026? | No | 42¢ | 38¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | No | 21¢ | 22¢ | $-4 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 79¢ | 78¢ | +$3 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
Sports 90% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 17¢ | +$0 | win |
| Predators vs. Lightning | Lightning | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Celtics vs. Hornets | Celtics | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Predators vs. Lightning | Predators | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Mentions 100% +$8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Economy 44% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 78¢ | 74¢ | $-0 | loss |
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 26¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 26¢ | 4¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 24¢ | 8¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? | No | 65¢ | 56¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? | Yes | 57¢ | 44¢ | $-2 | loss |
Finance 44% $-4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | No | 35¢ | 33¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 65¢ | 67¢ | +$3 | win |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 21¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Ledger IPO before 2027? | No | 46¢ | 76¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027? | No | 38¢ | 42¢ | $-0 | loss |
Tech 64% $-9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | OpenAI | 37¢ | 36¢ | +$0 | win |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 59¢ | 62¢ | $-3 | loss |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | No | 48¢ | 38¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | Yes | 75¢ | 78¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | No | 20¢ | 22¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 29¢ | 29¢ | +$1 | win |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | No | 75¢ | 76¢ | +$2 | win |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | Yes | 30¢ | 24¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 63¢ | 71¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Esports 0% $-12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs | Team Yandex | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 55.2¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $450 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $219 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $145 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 19.4¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $46 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 13.7¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $64 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 74.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $126 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 35.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $83 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 36.5¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $188 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 62.0¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $37 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 1¢ | $-3 | $77 | 12/04/2026 |
| Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders | Kolkata Knight Riders | 49.5¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $29 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $74 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 15-21, 2026 (ET)? | No | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $70 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)? | No | 64.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $79 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 8-14, 2026 (ET)? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $35 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $70 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)? | No | 73.1¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $326 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $63 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $337 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | No | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $142 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $287 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | No | 69.8¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $402 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | Yes | 27.8¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | $186 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | $110 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $437 | 31/03/2026 |
| Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $410 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $127 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $880 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $170 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 88.6¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $672 | 31/03/2026 |
| Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? | No | 13.4¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $112 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $124 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $204 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026? | Yes | 81.3¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $175 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $112 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $371 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? | No | 74.0¢ | 86¢ | +$8 | $317 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $355 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026? | No | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $125 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026? | No | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $313 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026? | No | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | No | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $158 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 24.2¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 9.8¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $91 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 75.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $550 | 31/03/2026 |