Pondermint

Elections 63% +$119,943 $1,241,318 vol · 52 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	52¢	55¢	+$119	win
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	52¢	56¢	+$12	win
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	61¢	63¢	+$26	win
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	51¢	52¢	+$10	win
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	85¢	86¢	+$12	win
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	63¢	66¢	+$6	win
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?	No	32¢	19¢	+$20	win
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?	Yes	68¢	81¢	$-17	loss
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$571	win
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	81¢	100¢	+$193	win

Other 50% +$29,251 $425,289 vol · 76 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$-0	loss
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	96¢	96¢	$-0	loss
Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	22¢	4¢	$-9	loss
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	Yes	39¢	24¢	$-666	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	82¢	86¢	+$113	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	63¢	80¢	+$3,627	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	20¢	46¢	$-59	loss
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	73¢	6¢	$-35	loss
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	42¢	74¢	+$114	win
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	73¢	99¢	+$1,183	win

Crypto 56% +$20,075 $24,417 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	44¢	40¢	$-182	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	24¢	22¢	$-32	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	7¢	2¢	$-358	loss
Copa Colsanitas: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Julieta Pareja	Julieta Pareja	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Ethereum above $2,600 on October 4?	Yes	67¢	0¢	$-899	loss
Ethereum above $2,400 on September 20?	Yes	33¢	100¢	+$9,575	win
Ethereum above $2,400 on September 13?	Yes	40¢	100¢	+$11,363	win
Solana above $130 on September 13?	Yes	50¢	100¢	+$592	win
Solana above $145 on August 30?	Yes	84¢	0¢	+$15	win

Geopolitics 66% +$10,493 $165,066 vol · 33 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	58¢	22¢	$-40	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	89¢	94¢	+$6	win
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	16¢	29¢	+$204	win
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	83¢	70¢	$-237	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	86¢	94¢	+$120	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	98¢	99¢	+$1	win
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	No	96¢	99¢	$-0	loss
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	96¢	100¢	$-15	loss
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	91¢	100¢	$-722	loss
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?	Yes	11¢	0¢	+$4	win

Sports 89% +$1,482 $27,340 vol · 28 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	96¢	100¢	+$9	win
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics	Athletics	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres	Seattle Mariners	98¢	0¢	$-195	loss
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles	Arizona Diamondbacks	75¢	100¢	+$25	win
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	89¢	100¢	+$11	win
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Chicago Cubs	94¢	100¢	+$6	win
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics	Texas Rangers	96¢	100¢	+$4	win
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees	Los Angeles Angels	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	98¢	100¢	+$10	win

Finance 100% +$53 $516 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7?	Down	75¢	100¢	+$41	win
Pershing Square IPO in 2024?	No	50¢	100¢	+$11	win

Weather 50% $-69 $4,278 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils	Duke Blue Devils	94¢	100¢	+$37	win
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils	St. Johns Red Storm	60¢	0¢	$-106	loss

Economy 0% $-291 $747 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?	Yes	77¢	0¢	$-291	loss

Politics 39% $-18,846 $562,590 vol · 71 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4¢	4¢	+$0	—
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$-653	loss
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$-39	loss
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$-5	loss
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Yes	75¢	68¢	$-8	loss
Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$-40	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	70¢	78¢	$-40	loss
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$-14	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	60¢	66¢	+$18	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	96¢	100¢	+$0	—