Win rate
56.0%
126 W / 99 L
Total PnL
$2,871
realized $432 · unrealized $2,439
Portfolio
$2,439
volume $157,912
Predictions
2,982
41.2/day · avg $53
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 63% +$743
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 85¢ | 86¢ | +$0 | win |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? | Yes | 26¢ | 100¢ | +$787 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 84¢ | 10¢ | $-4 | loss |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Politics 38% +$734
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 80¢ | 52¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 14¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 48¢ | $-203 | loss |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 46¢ | $-128 | loss |
| Will White House post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 82¢ | 39¢ | $-146 | loss |
| Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
Culture 75% +$313
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steam Awards Parlay | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | No | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$300 | win |
| Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
Other 77% +$182
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Inter Milan qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | No | 49¢ | 72¢ | +$3 | win |
| US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 36¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 75¢ | 94¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in March? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Nothing Ever Happens: March | Nothing | 58¢ | 62¢ | +$9 | win |
Mentions 60% +$130
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | +$35 | win |
Sports 33% +$15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
Tech 100% +$9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Crypto 75% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum Up or Down - December 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET | Down | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET | Down | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET | Down | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 November 24-30? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
Weather 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C or below on January 8? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $485 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 44.5¢ | 56¢ | $-56 | $839 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 64.8¢ | 48¢ | $-203 | $703 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 81.9¢ | 46¢ | $-128 | $296 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 81.7¢ | 39¢ | $-146 | $280 | 17/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 84.0¢ | 10¢ | $-4 | $25 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in March? | Yes | 73.3¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $74 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in March? | Yes | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 200+ posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 30.2¢ | 100¢ | +$273 | $120 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$133 | $344 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $210 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 11.9¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $26 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 10.3¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $25 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 35.5¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $54 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 47.3¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $77 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 21.7¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | $165 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$481 | $429 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $78 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 80.6¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $152 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $59 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $89 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 67.6¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 82.7¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: March | Nothing | 58.3¢ | 62¢ | +$9 | $59 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 81.3¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $41 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 42.6¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $194 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 8.1¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $65 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-244 | $351 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 38.3¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | $77 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 57.8¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $28 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $35 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $51 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 35.4¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $33 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 11.9¢ | 0¢ | $-57 | $78 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Yes | 45.9¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $62 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will White House post 60-79 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Yes | 17.9¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $36 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Yes | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $24 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Yes | 30.5¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $37 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $111 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 100¢ | +$298 | $123 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Yes | 9.6¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $64 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $302 | 17/03/2026 |