razzial

Geopolitics 44% +$61 $375 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	36¢	46¢	+$12	win
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	78¢	78¢	+$0	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	17¢	91¢	+$205	win
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?	Yes	28¢	100¢	+$64	win
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-85	loss
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-20	loss

Esports 67% +$25 $100 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega	Evil Geniuses	58¢	52¢	$-3	loss
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	Team Falcons	62¢	100¢	+$25	win
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha	Gentle Mates	90¢	100¢	+$3	win

Tech 100% +$5 $20 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$5	win

Finance 0% $-22 $80 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	52¢	38¢	$-22	loss

Economy 33% $-62 $110 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$8	win

Crypto 0% $-69 $136 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	84¢	84¢	$-0	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$-0	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	66¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	37¢	0¢	$-30	loss

Politics 0% $-236 $279 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	58¢	50¢	$-7	loss
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	61¢	0¢	$-55	loss
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-60	loss
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-40	loss

Elections 25% $-268 $337 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?	Yes	88¢	94¢	+$2	win
Another Canada election called in 2025?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-168	loss
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-78	loss
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-25	loss

Other 22% $-1,601 $1,990 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	18¢	18¢	+$4	win
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	27¢	66¢	+$142	win
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?	Yes	86¢	86¢	$-0	loss
Obama federally charged in 2025?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-64	loss
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-45	loss
Will Obama endorse Mamdani?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-25	loss
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	8¢	0¢	$-105	loss
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	Yes	22¢	0¢	$-1,468	loss