Knowyourball

Geopolitics 64% +$1,218 $19,589 vol · 100 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	36¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	76¢	100¢	$-8	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	32¢	0¢	$-218	loss
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	83¢	96¢	+$25	win
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$86	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	17¢	0¢	+$5	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	83¢	100¢	+$33	win
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?	No	81¢	100¢	+$3	win
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	63¢	96¢	$-10	loss

Other 62% +$501 $77,546 vol · 760 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch?	No	70¢	84¢	+$90	win
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	67¢	38¢	$-32	loss
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	81¢	100¢	+$0	—
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	50¢	52¢	+$7	win
Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	66¢	57¢	$-23	loss
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	58¢	84¢	+$21	win
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	67¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	77¢	100¢	+$79	win
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	84¢	100¢	+$38	win
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?	No	93¢	100¢	+$22	win

Culture 60% +$405 $21,888 vol · 80 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	51¢	30¢	$-10	loss
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	54¢	100¢	+$129	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?	No	78¢	100¢	$-8	loss
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m?	Yes	62¢	0¢	$-31	loss
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$122	win
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$32	win
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?	No	81¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	74¢	0¢	$-151	loss
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	67¢	100¢	+$75	win

Sports 64% +$253 $28,208 vol · 276 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	78¢	78¢	$-2	loss
NBA to pass Luka Doncic’s “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge”?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$29	win
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	73¢	99¢	+$35	win
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	80¢	79¢	$-7	loss
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	74¢	72¢	$-2	loss
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	73¢	96¢	+$45	win
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	90¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	64¢	71¢	+$55	win
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?	Yes	56¢	0¢	$-30	loss
OKC breaks NBA single-season wins record?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-14	loss

Elections 72% +$187 $3,716 vol · 25 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$125	win
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	19¢	$-130	loss
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	53¢	42¢	$-46	loss
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	52¢	59¢	+$7	win
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	91¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	59¢	66¢	+$29	win
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	57¢	42¢	$-30	loss
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	72¢	74¢	+$2	win
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?	Yes	85¢	89¢	+$10	win
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	81¢	82¢	+$4	win

Weather 100% +$35 $50 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?	No	58¢	100¢	+$35	win

Esports 50% $-110 $1,954 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs Alliance (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup 1 Playoffs	Alliance	80¢	100¢	+$13	win
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B	Tundra Esports	76¢	50¢	$-18	loss
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	FURIA	69¢	100¢	$-8	loss
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs	Paper Rex	73¢	100¢	+$11	win
Valorant: DRX vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs	DRX	80¢	100¢	+$25	win
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs REKONIX (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Tundra Esports	79¢	100¢	+$79	win
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs REKONIX (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Team Falcons	83¢	100¢	+$61	win
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Tundra Esports	64¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Yangon Galacticos vs CG Esports (BO3) - World Championship M7 Group Stage	Yangon Galacticos	56¢	100¢	+$22	win
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Boostgate Esports vs CFU Gaming (BO3)	Boostgate Esports	63¢	0¢	$-50	loss

Crypto 44% $-235 $1,447 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Kidnapped: Elizabeth Smart" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 27, 2026)	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$22	win
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	No	92¢	100¢	$-23	loss
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?	Yes	89¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?	Yes	76¢	100¢	$-38	loss
Will Hyperbeat launch a token in 2025?	Yes	57¢	0¢	$-100	loss
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	No	62¢	38¢	$-124	loss

Politics 42% $-391 $2,415 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	28¢	22¢	$-23	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	63¢	100¢	$-102	loss
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	79¢	84¢	+$8	win
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	82¢	60¢	$-139	loss
Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	No	82¢	98¢	+$20	win
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	82¢	86¢	+$4	win
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$1	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?	Yes	65¢	0¢	$-32	loss
Will Valerie Foushee be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$27	win

Tech 33% $-2,296 $11,098 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	21¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	73¢	21¢	$-67	loss
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?	Yes	57¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?	Yes	63¢	0¢	$-55	loss
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$28	win
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?	Yes	79¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?	Yes	93¢	100¢	$-110	loss
Will UpScrolled be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?	No	33¢	100¢	+$102	win
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?	Yes	89¢	100¢	$-1,713	loss
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$91	win