Win rate
59.9%
164 W / 110 L
Total PnL
$111,302
realized $104,440 · unrealized $6,863
Portfolio
$6,863
volume $3,714,525
Predictions
265
4.1/day · avg $14,017
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 55% +$52,735
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$1,369 | win |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | No | 50¢ | 56¢ | +$13 | win |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | Yes | 30¢ | 8¢ | $-7 | loss |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 81¢ | 86¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-2,163 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 51¢ | 92¢ | +$1,946 | win |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | +$251 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | loss |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
Politics 70% +$43,002
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$909 | win |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 35¢ | 44¢ | +$514 | win |
| Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 3¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 17¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026? | Yes | 60¢ | 24¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? | No | 11¢ | 18¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Will ACA premium tax credits be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-86 | loss |
| Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | $-13 | loss |
Other 49% +$13,806
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | No | 20¢ | 69¢ | +$995 | win |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$528 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-167 | loss |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? | Yes | 67¢ | 27¢ | $-191 | loss |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 60¢ | 65¢ | $-222 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 55¢ | 60¢ | $-719 | loss |
| Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 84¢ | 1¢ | $-5,056 | loss |
| Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? | Yes | 21¢ | 100¢ | +$179 | win |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | loss |
Crypto 100% +$3,869
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$3,869 | win |
Finance 67% +$257
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-524 | loss |
| Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? | Yes | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$514 | win |
| Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | +$127 | win |
| Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 95¢ | +$77 | win |
| Cerebras IPO in 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | No | 54¢ | 28¢ | +$97 | win |
Tech 60% +$98
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | Yes | 69¢ | 36¢ | +$1 | win |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | Yes | 29¢ | 27¢ | $-192 | loss |
| Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? | No | 50¢ | 30¢ | +$41 | win |
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$392 | win |
| ChatGPT Outage by March 15? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-144 | loss |
Elections 100% +$65
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Election" while addressing the nation on December 17? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$65 | win |
Weather 100% +$9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? | Yes | 71¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
Culture 0% $-142
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-142 | loss |
Economy 50% $-3,293
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30? | Yes | 81¢ | 14¢ | $-5,547 | loss |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting? | No | 17¢ | 100¢ | +$2,023 | win |
| No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 24¢ | 100¢ | +$370 | win |
| Will US GDP growth in 2025 be greater than 2.5%? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-139 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? | No | 58.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,384 | $1,974 | 19/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 53.2¢ | 100¢ | $-445 | $8,243 | 18/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$768 | $7,761 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 25.5¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | $502 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $-3,815 | $9,352 | 15/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 67.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6,141 | $18,703 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 33.4¢ | 0¢ | $-203 | $1,316 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 67.3¢ | 100¢ | +$27,328 | $277,476 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Weather" or "Rain" or "Raining" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 75.7¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $45 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $262 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 76.4¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $32 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 86.6¢ | 0¢ | $-139 | $139 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $642 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 21.3¢ | 0¢ | $-1,324 | $1,337 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 29.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3,869 | $2,012 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 20.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2,537 | $800 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 51.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,304 | $2,231 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,203 | $1,480 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | No | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1,165 | $10,612 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 82.9¢ | 100¢ | +$863 | $6,461 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 48.2¢ | 100¢ | +$757 | $2,057 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kristi Noem out by March 31? | Yes | 78.5¢ | 100¢ | +$638 | $2,975 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$487 | $5,455 | 31/03/2026 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by March 31? | Yes | 83.3¢ | 100¢ | +$417 | $3,401 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 61.5¢ | 100¢ | +$395 | $1,751 | 31/03/2026 |
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$392 | $1,043 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Don Lemon be criminally charged? | No | 49.2¢ | 0¢ | +$392 | $602 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 52.1¢ | 100¢ | +$283 | $435 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 81.2¢ | 100¢ | +$241 | $1,662 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | +$212 | $153 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? | Yes | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | +$153 | $241 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 58.9¢ | 100¢ | +$150 | $2,678 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $203 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kristi Noem out by March 31? | No | 72.1¢ | 0¢ | +$35 | $1,065 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | Yes | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $1,400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? | No | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $5,271 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 78.4¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $2,035 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | Yes | 31.5¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $415 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $2,124 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? | Yes | 51.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $535 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Don Lemon be criminally charged? | Yes | 45.8¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | $249 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | Yes | 55.4¢ | 100¢ | $-27 | $161 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | No | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $245 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | $135 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | No | 65.1¢ | 0¢ | $-96 | $3,999 | 31/03/2026 |
| Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31? | Yes | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | $-146 | $1,093 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 31.8¢ | 0¢ | $-163 | $2,788 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 48.3¢ | 0¢ | $-198 | $3,011 | 31/03/2026 |