Win rate
81.7%
1034 W / 232 L
Total PnL
$20,179
realized $17,627 · unrealized $2,553
Portfolio
$2,553
volume $812,735
Predictions
1,711
9.1/day · avg $475
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/07/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 83% +$11,190
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump visit Tennessee in 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Switzerland in 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026? | No | 38¢ | 78¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 52¢ | 78¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Lord Peter Mandelson Testify to Congress about Epstein? | No | 75¢ | 72¢ | $-1 | loss |
Other 87% +$4,566
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? | No | 77¢ | 88¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the US strike Cuba next? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 52¢ | 66¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will the US not strike another country before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the US not strike another country before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the US strike 3 countries in 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-174 | loss |
| Prince Andrew released by February 19? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Elections 61% +$2,264
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | loss |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | win |
| Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Geopolitics 76% +$2,039
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$109 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 30¢ | 24¢ | +$70 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 73¢ | 76¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 72¢ | +$10 | win |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 70¢ | $-105 | loss |
Crypto 75% +$222
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Rocky Mount visit? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the fundraiser? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? | No | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 19? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 December 8-14? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Mentions 86% +$60
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Sports 67% +$52
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clavicular unbanned from Kick by January 31? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will "Footballer" be said during the World Cup Draw on December 5? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Culture 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Local Heavens (K.M. Fajardo) win Readers' Favorite Science Fiction in the 2025 Goodreads Choice Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 33% $-17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bryan Johnson say "Goth Girl" while tripping balls? | Yes | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
Finance 0% $-43
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
Tech 33% $-216
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC rally? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Over $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO? | No | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-203 | loss |
| Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Sleepy" or "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 62.7¢ | 32¢ | $-86 | $178 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 62.7¢ | 40¢ | $-60 | $162 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $153 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "God" 10+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | No | 65.6¢ | 81¢ | +$13 | $53 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hottest" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $42 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | +$185 | $985 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Tax" 10+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | +$103 | $1,275 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Fake News" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $52 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $853 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Percent" 10+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $23 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Child" or "Childhood" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $197 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Percent" 10+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 40.2¢ | 0¢ | $-109 | $109 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Job" 12+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 28.7¢ | 0¢ | $-267 | $267 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,552 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,998 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Salute" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,888 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Friend" or "Ally" 7+ times during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,844 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ballroom" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $816 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "America" or "US" 7+ times during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,403 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hague" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $913 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 7+ times during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $274 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $240 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Billionaire" 5+ times during NYC rally? | Yes | 88.7¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $456 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $108 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "One Percent" 2+ times during NYC rally? | Yes | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $629 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC rally? | Yes | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $276 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Moon" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $188 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" during NYC rally? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $308 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie and Mamdani's remarks not air? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $498 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC rally? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $123 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Billionaire" 10+ times during NYC rally? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $211 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Maduro" during NYC rally? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $184 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 91.6¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $275 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 15+ times during Monday news conference? | Yes | 82.7¢ | 100¢ | +$592 | $2,839 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 36.5¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | $78 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$103 | $117 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "China" during Monday news conference? | No | 91.7¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $391 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Peace" or "War" 3+ times during Monday news conference? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $75 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "ISIS" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $437 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during Monday news conference? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $304 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Caine" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $220 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$183 | $11,237 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation? | No | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | $1,213 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $560 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 91.7¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $206 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $2,581 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $325 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $74 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Passover" or "Easter" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $217 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $333 | 01/04/2026 |