Win rate
59.3%
16 W / 11 L
Total PnL
$7,824
realized $-115,567 · unrealized $123,391
Portfolio
$123,391
volume $356,646
Predictions
17
0.8/day · avg $20,979
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 17/05/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 62% +$2,881
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$479 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | $-501 | loss |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 18¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 50¢ | 6¢ | $-18,588 | loss |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 94¢ | +$18,688 | win |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$32,844 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-30,053 | loss |
Crypto 67% +$2,000
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? | No | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$1,576 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$5,294 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-4,870 | loss |
Economy 56% +$1,466
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 50¢ | 8¢ | $-615 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 85¢ | 92¢ | +$865 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-2,242 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 75¢ | 99¢ | +$2,840 | win |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$8,739 | win |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-8,197 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$7,500 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-7,425 | loss |
Tech 67% +$568
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | +$72 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$3,456 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 96¢ | 99¢ | $-2,960 | loss |
Elections 50% +$403
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the South Australian Labor Party win the most seats in the next South Australian parliamentary election? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the South Australian Labor Party win the most seats in the next South Australian parliamentary election? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-2,363 | loss |
| Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-2,359 | loss |
Recent Trades (29)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 73.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5,294 | $14,486 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4,870 | $5,000 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 58.7¢ | 100¢ | +$32,844 | $46,611 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30,053 | $32,250 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the South Australian Labor Party win the most seats in the next South Australian parliamentary election? | No | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $1,000 | 21/03/2026 |
| Will the South Australian Labor Party win the most seats in the next South Australian parliamentary election? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,000 | 21/03/2026 |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 65.8¢ | 100¢ | +$8,739 | $16,856 | 19/03/2026 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 19/03/2026 |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | No | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8,197 | $8,500 | 19/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7,500 | $7,500 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7,425 | $7,500 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election? | Yes | 68.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2,582 | $5,172 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election? | No | 60.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,544 | $3,944 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election? | No | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,359 | $2,500 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,363 | $2,500 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 99¢ | +$2,840 | $31,414 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 99¢ | +$9 | $805 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 0.6¢ | 1¢ | $-2,242 | $210 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 58.4¢ | 94¢ | +$18,688 | $30,185 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 96.3¢ | 99¢ | $-2,960 | $15,580 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 0.6¢ | 1¢ | +$3,456 | $42 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 50.0¢ | 6¢ | $-18,588 | $20,800 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? | No | 91.6¢ | 99¢ | +$1,576 | $18,770 | 01/05/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 84.9¢ | 92¢ | +$865 | $9,659 | 17/06/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 50.0¢ | 8¢ | $-615 | $750 | 17/06/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 85.6¢ | 86¢ | +$72 | $6,884 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 18¢ | +$2 | $48 | 31/12/2026 |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | +$479 | $625 | 01/01/2027 |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 64.4¢ | 100¢ | $-501 | $2,243 | 01/01/2027 |