0x83e8723ff456f79445192be823761a4d67517b89-1769715632027

Politics 58% +$3,150 $40,551 vol · 73 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	No	94¢	97¢	+$63	win
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	47¢	48¢	+$145	win
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	No	60¢	60¢	+$1	win
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	Yes	49¢	53¢	+$2	win
Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09?	No	87¢	92¢	$-18	loss
Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?	Yes	32¢	7¢	$-16	loss
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?	Yes	78¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 10, 2026?	No	96¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Trump attend UFC 327?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$2,663	win
Will Trump attend UFC 327?	No	13¢	0¢	+$104	win

Geopolitics 50% +$2,980 $35,396 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	87¢	45¢	$-797	loss
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	5¢	55¢	+$3,801	win
Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs?	No	42¢	0¢	+$3	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	94¢	13¢	$-7,351	loss
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	94¢	100¢	+$889	win
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-58	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Yes	7¢	100¢	+$11,702	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	64¢	0¢	$-316	loss
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?	No	44¢	100¢	+$158	win

Sports 63% +$2,088 $62,267 vol · 254 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?	No	50¢	92¢	+$276	win
Will Ilya Sorokin win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?	No	44¢	96¢	+$79	win
Will Ryan Warsofsky win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award?	No	85¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?	Yes	59¢	91¢	+$20	win
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	47¢	56¢	+$3	win
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	87¢	98¢	$-626	loss
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	89¢	99¢	$-41	loss
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	4¢	1¢	+$18	win
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	68¢	95¢	+$26	win
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	No	39¢	35¢	$-2	loss

Tech 56% +$1,736 $11,093 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	3¢	4¢	+$3	win
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on April 6?	No	100¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-132	loss
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of March?	Yes	56¢	0¢	$-18	loss
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	80¢	100¢	$-68	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	78¢	100¢	+$1,586	win
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-141	loss

Finance 67% +$1,722 $4,138 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Pure Storage (PSTG) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?	No	83¢	100¢	$-53	loss
Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?	Yes	67¢	100¢	+$113	win
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?	No	51¢	99¢	$-2	loss
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?	Yes	41¢	1¢	+$7	win

Elections 55% +$891 $11,837 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	17¢	10¢	+$95	win
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	80¢	34¢	$-410	loss
Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?	No	12¢	0¢	$-102	loss
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	No	12¢	10¢	$-27	loss
Will Colton Moore win the GA-14 special election?	No	91¢	100¢	+$4	win

Esports 46% +$782 $50,486 vol · 84 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	Team Falcons	46¢	100¢	+$2,438	win
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs	Sentinels	55¢	100¢	+$116	win
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B	FURIA	70¢	100¢	+$37	win
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha	Gentle Mates	56¢	100¢	+$24	win
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha	Natus Vincere	27¢	0¢	$-5	loss
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season	Barcząca Esports	49¢	0¢	$-143	loss
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	Vitality	58¢	0¢	$-210	loss
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Team Heretics Academy (BO3) - LES Regular Season	Team Heretics Academy	31¢	100¢	+$21	win
Valorant: All Gamers vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha	All Gamers	79¢	100¢	+$12	win
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Team Heretics Academy (BO3) - LES Regular Season	UCAM Esports Club	16¢	0¢	+$8	win

Weather 100% +$2 $1,744 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on April 7?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win

Crypto 48% $-603 $58,646 vol · 61 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will XRP reach $1.40 in April?	Yes	65¢	100¢	$-6	loss
Will XRP reach $1.40 in April?	No	18¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$-73	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Yes	10¢	8¢	$-15	loss
Will Dogecoin reach $0.10 in April?	No	36¢	10¢	$-787	loss
Will Solana reach $100 in April?	No	71¢	72¢	+$2	win
Will Solana reach $90 in April?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$30	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	6¢	2¢	$-96	loss
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	93¢	100¢	+$9	win

Culture 62% $-1,274 $61,108 vol · 230 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	2¢	2¢	$-5	loss
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	91¢	96¢	$-64	loss
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	52¢	98¢	+$21	win
Will "Black and Blue" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	97¢	98¢	+$1	win
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	10¢	4¢	+$53	win
Will "XO, Kitty: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	97¢	99¢	+$0	win
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	64¢	2¢	$-61	loss
Will "XO, Kitty: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	6¢	0¢	+$231	win
Will "Madagascar" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	No	96¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-62	loss

Economy 18% $-1,593 $7,396 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	84¢	96¢	$-9	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-102	loss
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	83¢	94¢	$-200	loss
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	68¢	93¢	$-13	loss
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?	Yes	82¢	100¢	$-187	loss
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?	No	81¢	0¢	$-720	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	18¢	0¢	+$1,082	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	81¢	100¢	$-1,094	loss

Other 62% $-6,216 $90,429 vol · 219 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	88¢	98¢	+$10	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	49¢	27¢	$-2,165	loss
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	79¢	66¢	$-16	loss
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?	No	13¢	10¢	$-5	loss
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	No	53¢	37¢	$-16	loss
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	Yes	33¢	31¢	+$5	win
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	53¢	63¢	+$7	win
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	94¢	96¢	+$3	win
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	34¢	41¢	+$79	win
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	No	51¢	0¢	$-60	loss