Win rate
36.4%
8 W / 14 L
Total PnL
$-189
realized $-3,186 · unrealized $2,998
Portfolio
$2,998
volume $45,020
Predictions
45
0.5/day · avg $1,000
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 14/05/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 40% +$239
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-04-18? | Yes | 46¢ | 46¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-04-05? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-157 | loss |
| Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-03-20? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$152 | win |
| Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Elections 100% +$8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 51¢ | 55¢ | +$8 | win |
Politics 25% $-110
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Deal" 10+ times during May 16 Baier interview? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Crypto 25% $-380
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | Down | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-97 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET | Up | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102000 and $104000 on May 16? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
Geopolitics 38% $-399
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 73¢ | 94¢ | +$616 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$285 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$68 | win |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-472 | loss |
Recent Trades (22)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-04-18? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 46¢ | $-2 | $150 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-04-05? | Yes | 43.9¢ | 0¢ | $-157 | $157 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 75.8¢ | 100¢ | +$285 | $1,682 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-03-20? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$152 | $259 | 20/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | Down | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | $-97 | $111 | 01/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET | Up | 30.1¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | $110 | 01/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | +$68 | $114 | 28/02/2026 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $105 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $105 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May? | No | 15.5¢ | 0¢ | $-472 | $472 | 31/05/2025 |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Yes | 42.4¢ | 100¢ | +$272 | $201 | 17/05/2025 |
| Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 17/05/2025 |
| Will Trump say "Erdogan" during May 16 Baier interview? | No | 55.5¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $50 | 16/05/2025 |
| Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during May 16 Baier interview? | No | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 16/05/2025 |
| Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during May 16 Baier interview? | No | 48.4¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 16/05/2025 |
| Will Trump say "Deal" 10+ times during May 16 Baier interview? | No | 41.9¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 16/05/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102000 and $104000 on May 16? | Yes | 46.3¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $200 | 16/05/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on May 15 at 5 PM ET? | Yes | 67.2¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $57 | 15/05/2025 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 17.8¢ | 0¢ | $-600 | $1,054 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 72.6¢ | 94¢ | +$616 | $2,380 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 55¢ | +$8 | $110 | 03/11/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $305 | 31/12/2026 |