Convex7

Geopolitics 54% +$1,736 $138,445 vol · 105 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	24¢	18¢	$-6	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$-43	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	31¢	30¢	+$31	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	3¢	0¢	+$38	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	44¢	68¢	+$3	win
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	8¢	9¢	$-1	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	35¢	0¢	$-1	loss
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$-2	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	25¢	30¢	$-4	loss
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	39¢	0¢	$-41	loss

Crypto 73% +$1,503 $30,285 vol · 76 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$-5	loss
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	37¢	39¢	+$0	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	39¢	54¢	$-1	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?	Yes	6¢	3¢	$-20	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 8?	Yes	34¢	100¢	+$35	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 7?	Yes	28¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6?	Yes	31¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 3?	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$130	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 2?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-1	loss

Elections 61% +$455 $12,467 vol · 38 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$-13	loss
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	45¢	44¢	$-7	loss
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	39¢	40¢	$-4	loss
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	38¢	36¢	$-3	loss
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	35¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	33¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?	Yes	39¢	0¢	$-0	loss
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?	No	32¢	0¢	+$11	win
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?	Yes	31¢	0¢	+$2	win

Other 50% +$449 $62,929 vol · 109 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	Yes	31¢	32¢	+$1	win
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	27¢	27¢	$-20	loss
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	41¢	42¢	+$10	win
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	16¢	18¢	+$0	—
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	37¢	63¢	$-0	loss
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	33¢	40¢	$-2	loss
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	35¢	34¢	$-4	loss
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	19¢	24¢	$-5	loss
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?	Yes	15¢	8¢	$-6	loss
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	37¢	51¢	+$186	win

Sports 74% +$138 $33,707 vol · 49 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	No	14¢	14¢	$-20	loss
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	28¢	20¢	$-2	loss
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	33¢	30¢	+$3	win
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	44¢	56¢	$-0	loss
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$-7	loss
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	22¢	2¢	$-12	loss
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-21	loss

Politics 68% +$38 $41,626 vol · 76 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$-8	loss
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$-1	loss
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$-3	loss
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	46¢	43¢	$-9	loss
Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	5¢	6¢	+$18	win
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	25¢	64¢	$-19	loss
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	38¢	46¢	$-12	loss
Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$94	win
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	34¢	1¢	$-0	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	44¢	55¢	+$2	win

Finance 67% +$28 $525 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	44¢	52¢	$-2	loss
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	21¢	14¢	+$7	win

Culture 67% +$1 $763 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	20¢	0¢	+$2	win

Economy 56% $-17 $2,646 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	34¢	26¢	$-14	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	22¢	22¢	+$4	win
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$-8	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	12¢	8¢	+$12	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	2¢	1¢	+$6	win
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-37	loss