Win rate
43.4%
642 W / 838 L
Total PnL
$-124,939
realized $-138,516 · unrealized $13,577
Portfolio
$13,577
volume $4,984,857
Predictions
1,477
9.2/day · avg $3,375
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/07/2023 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Finance 71% +$1,155
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 84¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 84¢ | 90¢ | $-2 | loss |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Yes | 89¢ | 96¢ | $-2 | loss |
| SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026? | Yes | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | loss |
| Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Economy 56% +$728
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$104 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$92 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | No | 36¢ | 100¢ | $-46 | loss |
Weather 100% +$18
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
Culture 67% $-83
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-89 | loss |
Elections 39% $-256
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 25¢ | 19¢ | $-51 | loss |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 46¢ | 40¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 83¢ | 83¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 46¢ | 38¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 83¢ | 84¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 64¢ | 46¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 91¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
Tech 39% $-460
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? | SpaceX | 90¢ | 94¢ | $-6 | loss |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | Yes | 65¢ | 76¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4? | Yes | 85¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | Yes | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-181 | loss |
| Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of February? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Politics 26% $-1,666
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 48¢ | 39¢ | $-85 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 64¢ | 73¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 32¢ | 27¢ | $-155 | loss |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 16¢ | +$16 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $-72 | loss |
Crypto 38% $-4,342
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 57¢ | 62¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 29¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 22¢ | $-67 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 10¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 30¢ | $-354 | loss |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | No | 51¢ | 51¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-209 | loss |
| Will XRP dip to $1.20 in February? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-279 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-113 | loss |
Geopolitics 45% $-21,338
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 58¢ | 70¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$0 | win |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 88¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 49¢ | 30¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 63¢ | 81¢ | $-79 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$157 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card) | Chris Duncan | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-1,042 | loss |
Other 43% $-27,267
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | Yes | 8¢ | 1¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | No | 85¢ | 66¢ | $-119 | loss |
| HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
| Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 75¢ | 82¢ | +$1 | win |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 71¢ | 53¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 86¢ | 42¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$5 | win |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Human moon landing in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
Esports 45% $-28,213
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs | Spirit | 25¢ | 24¢ | $-113 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | FURIA | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-3,623 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | FURIA | 50¢ | 50¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | Team Falcons | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-3,711 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | Natus Vincere | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-242 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | MOUZ | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-219 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | Passion UA | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-454 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | B8 | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-861 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | HOTU | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-902 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | Legacy | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-1,399 | loss |
Sports 41% $-45,745
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card) | Gilbert Burns | 30¢ | 30¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Clippers | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$643 | win |
| UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims) | Kelvin Gastelum | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Johnny Walker | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-400 | loss |
| UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Jirí Procházka | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-421 | loss |
| UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Azamat Murzakanov | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-682 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | Virna Jandiroba | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$607 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Prelims) | Stewart Nicoll | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Manolo Zecchini vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Main Card) | Manolo Zecchini | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-175 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Brendson Ribeiro | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-195 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs | Spirit | 25.0¢ | 24¢ | $-113 | $5,770 | 19/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | FURIA | 23.1¢ | 0¢ | $-3,623 | $3,702 | 19/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | FURIA | 50.0¢ | 50¢ | $-69 | $7,014 | 19/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card) | Gilbert Burns | 30.0¢ | 30¢ | $-20 | $1,253 | 19/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | Team Falcons | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3,711 | $3,782 | 18/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | Natus Vincere | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-242 | $247 | 18/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs | MOUZ | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | $-219 | $821 | 17/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | Passion UA | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-454 | $806 | 14/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | B8 | 20.9¢ | 0¢ | $-861 | $1,000 | 14/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | HOTU | 21.7¢ | 0¢ | $-902 | $902 | 14/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B | Legacy | 31.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1,399 | $1,612 | 14/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Clippers | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$643 | $889 | 13/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs RED Canids (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | RED Canids | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | $106 | 13/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | 3DMAX | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-475 | $475 | 13/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | Liquid | 14.5¢ | 0¢ | $-692 | $692 | 13/04/2026 |
| LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season | Sentinels | 19.9¢ | 0¢ | $-874 | $1,389 | 13/04/2026 |
| LoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season | Disguised | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,501 | $1,501 | 13/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | Gentle Mates | 35.3¢ | 0¢ | $-2,162 | $2,720 | 13/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelims) | Kelvin Gastelum | 70.6¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $39 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Johnny Walker | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | $-400 | $400 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Jirí Procházka | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-421 | $421 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Azamat Murzakanov | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-682 | $682 | 12/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BIG (BO3) - HLC Belgrade Pro Playoffs | BIG | 29.0¢ | 100¢ | +$113 | $340 | 06/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Voca (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | BC.Game Esports | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $748 | 06/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | Inner Circle Esports | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $418 | 06/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | Legacy | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | $-144 | $866 | 06/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | FOKUS | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-812 | $812 | 06/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BIG (BO3) - HLC Belgrade Pro Playoffs | FaZe | 60.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1,363 | $2,193 | 06/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | Virna Jandiroba | 55.6¢ | 100¢ | +$607 | $760 | 05/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Omega (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group Stage | ASTRAL | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $129 | 05/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Omega (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group Stage | Omega | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $26 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Prelims) | Stewart Nicoll | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Manolo Zecchini vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Main Card) | Manolo Zecchini | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-175 | $175 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Brendson Ribeiro | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-195 | $195 | 05/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MANA eSports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Playoffs | UNiTY esports | 28.9¢ | 0¢ | $-219 | $219 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Dione Barbosa (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) | Melissa Gatto | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-248 | $248 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims) | Dakota Hope | 42.8¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | $250 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers (Lightweight, Prelims) | Lando Vannata | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | $-285 | $285 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelims) | Robert Ruchala | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | $-325 | $325 | 05/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FOKUS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | FOKUS | 18.3¢ | 0¢ | $-332 | $332 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims) | Azamat Bekoev | 73.6¢ | 0¢ | $-450 | $450 | 05/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Astralis vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | B8 | 39.4¢ | 0¢ | $-473 | $473 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Card) | Rafael Estevam | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | $500 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card) | Chris Duncan | 55.2¢ | 0¢ | $-1,042 | $1,042 | 05/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | MIBR | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-257 | $257 | 04/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs | BetBoom Team | 34.9¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | $57 | 03/04/2026 |
| Trove founder arrested by March 31? | Yes | 10.7¢ | 0¢ | $-287 | $287 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $596 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |