Win rate
75.3%
110 W / 36 L
Total PnL
$521,446
realized $-156,454 · unrealized $677,900
Portfolio
$677,900
volume $4,544,983
Predictions
145
3.3/day · avg $31,345
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 07/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 78% +$483,692
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 93¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 73¢ | 76¢ | +$6,124 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 84¢ | +$1,320 | win |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-1,000 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 91¢ | +$375 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 83¢ | 98¢ | +$1,626 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 68¢ | 94¢ | +$47,211 | win |
Other 78% +$31,393
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 88¢ | 48¢ | $-67 | loss |
| Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 86¢ | +$96 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | No | 88¢ | 97¢ | $-76 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | No | 78¢ | 80¢ | +$12 | win |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$29 | win |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30? | No | 91¢ | 98¢ | +$18 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 87¢ | 56¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? | No | 88¢ | 86¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 85¢ | 94¢ | +$29 | win |
Elections 100% +$1,185
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$1,185 | win |
Crypto 100% +$449
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 6? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Solana ETF approved in 2025? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$139 | win |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$289 | win |
Politics 14% +$366
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $-130 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 74¢ | 58¢ | $-235 | loss |
| Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | No | 33¢ | 100¢ | $-171 | loss |
Sports 50% $-57
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 59¢ | 56¢ | $-453 | loss |
| Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$396 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 62.2¢ | 92¢ | +$11,345 | $28,441 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,185 | $7,501 | 12/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 48.7¢ | 92¢ | +$30,404 | $39,812 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 85.3¢ | 100¢ | +$9,475 | $58,155 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 74.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9,139 | $50,484 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | No | 78.3¢ | 100¢ | +$5,985 | $23,360 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? | No | 63.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5,415 | $9,614 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,958 | $20,659 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | No | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,949 | $8,652 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | Yes | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$677 | $7,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$668 | $3,646 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 70.6¢ | 100¢ | +$509 | $1,268 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$496 | $6,600 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | No | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | +$374 | $2,884 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 89.2¢ | 100¢ | +$332 | $3,200 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31? | No | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | +$273 | $1,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$236 | $1,849 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$199 | $24,076 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | $3,551 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $1,379 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $595 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | $3,500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $1,900 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? | No | 91.7¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $526 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $160 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 72.4¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $7,500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $665 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Oman strike Iran by March 31? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $1,400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $2,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 85.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,025 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $657 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 60.1¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | $163 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 70.3¢ | 0¢ | $-1,027 | $3,843 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 38.3¢ | 0¢ | $-1,871 | $15,593 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 84.6¢ | 100¢ | $-12,883 | $40,913 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$402 | $15,402 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$172 | $70,891 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $57,494 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $8,140 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? | No | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$260 | $1,643 | 07/03/2026 |
| Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$255 | $6,199 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Syria in March? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $32 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Turkey in March? | No | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $50 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Pakistan in March? | No | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $50 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Yemen in March? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $233 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Lebanon in March? | No | 89.9¢ | 0¢ | $-122 | $280 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 6? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $1,000 | 06/03/2026 |