Win rate
58.9%
718 W / 502 L
Total PnL
$44,933
realized $-8,378 · unrealized $53,311
Portfolio
$53,311
volume $3,124,805
Predictions
1,384
21.4/day · avg $2,258
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 24/03/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 59% +$18,249
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 14¢ | 100¢ | +$652 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-398 | loss |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-206 | loss |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$294 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 75¢ | 84¢ | +$63 | win |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | No | 64¢ | 75¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | Yes | 66¢ | 50¢ | $-18 | loss |
Other 62% +$8,581
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 65¢ | +$160 | win |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 26¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US strike on Mexico by March 31? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | win |
| Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 39¢ | 56¢ | +$249 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | 37¢ | 64¢ | +$223 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | win |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | No | 57¢ | 78¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
Culture 55% +$7,104
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Project Hail Mary" make it into the IMDb Top 250? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$153 | win |
| Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | Yes | 63¢ | 73¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$331 | win |
| Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 40¢ | 13¢ | $-162 | loss |
| Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | No | 74¢ | 87¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
Geopolitics 64% +$4,290
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 88¢ | +$70 | win |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 45¢ | 74¢ | +$71 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 48¢ | 70¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 81¢ | 91¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 57¢ | 76¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | 67¢ | 86¢ | +$40 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 48¢ | 84¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | loss |
Elections 55% +$2,271
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 5¢ | 2¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? | No | 69¢ | 78¢ | +$5 | win |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | No | 75¢ | 80¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | Yes | 18¢ | 26¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-463 | loss |
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 68¢ | 92¢ | +$135 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 38¢ | 34¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 63¢ | 64¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | No | 29¢ | 37¢ | +$69 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat? | Yes | 35¢ | 32¢ | $-7 | loss |
Tech 49% +$1,650
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | No | 62¢ | 90¢ | +$227 | win |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 31? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | win |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 31? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-501 | loss |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24? | Yes | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-254 | loss |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28? | Yes | 7¢ | 100¢ | +$295 | win |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Finance 46% +$756
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 45¢ | 19¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will no acquisition occur by May 31 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-155 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Kraken IPO in 2025? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? | Yes | 17¢ | 1¢ | $-98 | loss |
Sports 25% +$512
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 21¢ | 23¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 73¢ | 70¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? | Yes | 23¢ | 10¢ | $-47 | loss |
| World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? | No | 85¢ | 97¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$133 | win |
| Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-182 | loss |
| Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-252 | loss |
| Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125M and 150M views in its first 7 days? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 50 and 60 million views on day 1? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | loss |
Economy 71% +$347
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada recession before 2027? | No | 59¢ | 66¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 81¢ | 80¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 37¢ | 92¢ | +$183 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 75¢ | 99¢ | +$23 | win |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | loss |
Crypto 60% +$241
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$340 | win |
| Will "Kidnapped: Elizabeth Smart" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (February 3) | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine in 2025? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 35.3¢ | 91¢ | +$199 | $192 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 71.0¢ | 98¢ | +$95 | $355 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $954 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026? | No | 81.8¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $185 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $87 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $45 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 29.6¢ | 2¢ | $-23 | $256 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 39.3¢ | 100¢ | $-57 | $268 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $238 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? | Yes | 57.3¢ | 87¢ | +$136 | $418 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 99¢ | +$108 | $1,281 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 22.1¢ | 18¢ | +$25 | $210 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $280 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%? | No | 50.7¢ | 88¢ | +$19 | $51 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 35.6¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $338 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 12.0¢ | 1¢ | $-9 | $39 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? | No | 50.4¢ | 13¢ | $-22 | $114 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 12¢ | $-130 | $1,296 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $82 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 1¢ | $-390 | $475 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $47 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $46 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 63.9¢ | 81¢ | +$502 | $1,038 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 19.8¢ | 0¢ | $-111 | $112 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Yes | 60.6¢ | 81¢ | +$758 | $1,513 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 9.7¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $29 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 62.0¢ | 81¢ | +$19 | $62 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64.1¢ | 82¢ | +$68 | $107 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election? | Yes | 25.9¢ | 54¢ | +$326 | $258 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election? | No | 25.4¢ | 55¢ | +$557 | $305 | 09/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 34.1¢ | 100¢ | $-86 | $362 | 07/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? | No | 47.1¢ | 0¢ | $-155 | $155 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $23 | 01/04/2026 |
| Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31? | No | 33.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1,138 | $620 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in March 2026? | No | 54.6¢ | 100¢ | +$789 | $948 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 22.1¢ | 100¢ | +$705 | $349 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 18.9¢ | 100¢ | +$597 | $143 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | Yes | 16.4¢ | 0¢ | +$459 | $176 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026? | No | 60.5¢ | 100¢ | +$385 | $573 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 22.3¢ | 100¢ | +$340 | $98 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? | No | 67.5¢ | 100¢ | +$292 | $1,200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | No | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$234 | $960 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 27.0¢ | 100¢ | +$230 | $143 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? | No | 56.9¢ | 100¢ | +$204 | $1,244 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Borova by March 31? | No | 39.2¢ | 100¢ | +$201 | $129 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31? | No | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$198 | $138 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | No | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | +$191 | $107 | 31/03/2026 |