breakingcute

Politics 38% +$870 $8,706 vol · 21 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-147	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	59¢	100¢	+$308	win
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?	Yes	85¢	100¢	$-42	loss
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	75¢	100¢	$-56	loss
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	83¢	92¢	+$16	win
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will all of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?	No	80¢	100¢	+$38	win
Will Donald Trump be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?	No	97¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?	No	5¢	0¢	$-46	loss
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?	No	2¢	0¢	$-164	loss

Geopolitics 58% +$281 $24,295 vol · 57 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	No	91¢	100¢	+$70	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	77¢	100¢	$-20	loss
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	22¢	0¢	$-44	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	51¢	0¢	$-76	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	39¢	0¢	$-312	loss
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	37¢	26¢	$-40	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	54¢	100¢	+$46	win
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	48¢	0¢	$-289	loss
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	86¢	97¢	+$3	win

Culture 56% +$228 $21,356 vol · 39 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-1,626	loss
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?	No	65¢	100¢	$-241	loss
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-1,565	loss
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-16	loss
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?	No	71¢	100¢	+$422	win
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$172	win
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$71	win
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-45	loss
Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?	No	64¢	0¢	$-159	loss

Tech 43% +$201 $6,462 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	48¢	86¢	+$0	—
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	No	93¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Yes	58¢	0¢	$-17	loss
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	No	5¢	0¢	$-108	loss
Google Gemini Parlay	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-135	loss
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-197	loss
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	11¢	0¢	+$24	win
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	64¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	10¢	0¢	$-1	loss

Elections 50% +$144 $2,848 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	65¢	64¢	$-12	loss
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	70¢	66¢	$-14	loss
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?	No	46¢	0¢	$-69	loss
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-46	loss
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?	No	85¢	100¢	+$31	win
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$111	win

Economy 75% +$104 $1,341 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$45	win
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$58	win
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	29¢	0¢	+$21	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	No	2¢	0¢	$-20	loss

Crypto 50% +$101 $1,361 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?	No	92¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?	No	81¢	100¢	+$57	win
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?	No	39¢	0¢	$-116	loss
BNB all time high by December 31?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-6	loss
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-45	loss

Mentions 50% $-18 $294 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-19	loss
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$1	win

Sports 40% $-151 $2,602 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	16¢	2¢	$-70	loss
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?	Yes	51¢	100¢	$-354	loss
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?	No	62¢	0¢	$-17	loss

Finance 67% $-165 $1,450 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$196	win
Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$85	win
Will Etsy (ETSY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	57¢	0¢	$-445	loss

Other 50% $-993 $26,997 vol · 78 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Lighter FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	99¢	100¢	+$3	win
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	52¢	0¢	$-104	loss
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?	No	16¢	0¢	$-70	loss
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	82¢	82¢	+$0	—
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	81¢	100¢	+$186	win
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	12¢	5¢	+$11	win
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	Yes	19¢	100¢	+$1	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	90¢	88¢	$-12	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	46¢	14¢	$-10	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	73¢	42¢	$-320	loss