peter239784

Geopolitics 65% +$9,556 $79,378 vol · 89 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	90¢	100¢	+$74	win
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-5	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	32¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	95¢	100¢	+$8	win
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	55¢	57¢	+$1	win
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$2	win
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	75¢	0¢	$-7	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	69¢	100¢	$-7	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	78¢	94¢	+$170	win
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	68¢	0¢	$-395	loss

Elections 58% +$3,397 $11,221 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?	Yes	53¢	99¢	+$585	win
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$69	win
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?	No	54¢	1¢	$-15	loss
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	4¢	2¢	$-120	loss
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	54¢	0¢	$-396	loss
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?	Yes	93¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$228	win
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 61%?	Yes	44¢	100¢	+$114	win

Esports 69% +$334 $5,200 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 4 Winner	Bilibili Gaming	59¢	50¢	$-29	loss
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner	G2 Esports	80¢	100¢	+$122	win
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A	Team Secret Whales	9¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner	Spirit Academy	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs OG - Map 2 Winner	fnatic	89¢	100¢	+$80	win
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 4 Winner	Nongshim Esports Academy	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 3 Winner	Hanwha Life Esports Challengers	86¢	100¢	+$9	win
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner	Team WE	48¢	0¢	$-45	loss
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner	Top Esports	99¢	100¢	$-1	loss

Other 62% +$55 $35,215 vol · 82 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?	Yes	76¢	100¢	$-17	loss
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	50¢	76¢	$-102	loss
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	84¢	100¢	+$180	win
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-62	loss
Will Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	65¢	93¢	+$104	win
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	1¢	0¢	$-27	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	50¢	64¢	+$1,073	win
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner	Carlos Alcaraz	44¢	0¢	$-71	loss

Sports 67% +$9 $2,348 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?	Yes	63¢	0¢	$-53	loss
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Seahawks	98¢	100¢	+$51	win
Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP?	No	92¢	100¢	+$11	win

Mentions 100% +$7 $40 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday?	Yes	16¢	0¢	+$7	win

Weather 0% $-1 $30 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C on February 7?	No	88¢	100¢	$-1	loss

Tech 0% $-15 $50 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-15	loss

Politics 55% $-738 $24,661 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-35	loss
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	74¢	58¢	$-133	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?	No	22¢	100¢	+$2,270	win
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	No	66¢	100¢	$-32	loss
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	Yes	40¢	0¢	$-3,259	loss
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$103	win
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam?	No	99¢	100¢	+$26	win

Crypto 56% $-782 $1,527 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	71¢	100¢	+$18	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	72¢	100¢	+$16	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	91¢	100¢	+$2	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	91¢	100¢	+$2	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	64¢	0¢	$-13	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	68¢	0¢	$-15	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	No	90¢	0¢	$-694	loss