Win rate
96.6%
4252 W / 149 L
Total PnL
$-1,280
realized $-19,284 · unrealized $18,004
Portfolio
$18,004
volume $7,946,597
Predictions
5,116
74.0/day · avg $1,553
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 90% +$3,383
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 94¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 65¢ | 54¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump say "Jesus" in April? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in April? | No | 74¢ | 77¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in April? | Yes | 60¢ | 42¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12) | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "Delcy" or "Rodriguez" this week? (April 5) | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Crypto 98% +$2,678
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$328 | win |
| Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Peace" during press conference? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$471 | win |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$149 | win |
| Will SOL flip ETH in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will OpenAI launch a token in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Other 84% +$2,075
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | 51¢ | 64¢ | +$172 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will the US strike Mexico next? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$10 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 93¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 56¢ | 36¢ | $-128 | loss |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | Yes | 81¢ | 46¢ | $-155 | loss |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | win |
Elections 100% +$2,008
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$802 | win |
| Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$486 | win |
| Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$151 | win |
| Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | win |
| Will a Republican win Alaska Presidential Election? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | win |
| Will a Democrat win California Presidential Election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | win |
| Will a Republican win Ohio Presidential Election? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$103 | win |
Tech 95% +$1,104
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Google be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Google be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will DramaBox - Stream Drama Shorts be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2? | Yes | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$178 | win |
Geopolitics 79% +$502
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$15 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 30¢ | $-328 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 39¢ | 6¢ | $-240 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1,179 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-719 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-534 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$356 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$270 | win |
Finance 100% +$101
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | win |
Economy 0% $-14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 44¢ | $-14 | loss |
Sports 68% $-445
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brian Ortega be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 69¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Merab Dvalishvili become UFC champion in 2026? | No | 60¢ | 50¢ | $-1 | loss |
| World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? | No | 87¢ | 97¢ | +$358 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card) | Strickland | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | win |
| UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) | Gaethje | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | win |
| UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) | Della Maddalena | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-192 | loss |
| UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev | Du Plessis | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-842 | loss |
| Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena | Maddalena | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin Holland | Holland | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Weather 97% $-6,955
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 21°C or below on April 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 50°C or higher on April 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on April 19? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 39°C or higher on April 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on April 18? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on April 18? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on April 18? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 24°C or below on April 18? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 23°C on April 18? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on April 17? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on April 17? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $2,669 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 37°C on April 17? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $954 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on April 17? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $506 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on April 17? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $426 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on April 17? | No | 98.1¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $382 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on April 17? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $213 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on April 17? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $149 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on April 17? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $23 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 16? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $9,980 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $3,434 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $2,997 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $2,997 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $2,865 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $2,617 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $2,541 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,268 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on April 16? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $360 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,207 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,033 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,954 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,850 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,756 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,676 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,651 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 16? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $728 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,310 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,270 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,160 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,153 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,108 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,106 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,073 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,050 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 31°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,041 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on April 16? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $512 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,018 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 32°C or higher on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,013 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $987 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $808 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $779 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on April 16? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $343 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on April 16? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $389 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $634 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $634 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $578 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $544 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $516 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $350 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $319 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $317 | 16/04/2026 |