Win rate
77.6%
118 W / 34 L
Total PnL
$2,086
realized $611 · unrealized $1,474
Portfolio
$1,474
volume $2,440,686
Predictions
341
10.5/day · avg $7,157
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 28/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 76% +$917
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? | Yes | 26¢ | 32¢ | +$111 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 42¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 21¢ | 26¢ | $-5 | loss |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Yes | 17¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? | Yes | 82¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? | Yes | 74¢ | 57¢ | +$3 | win |
Elections 72% +$481
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 13¢ | 16¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 36¢ | 38¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 39¢ | 36¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
Politics 76% +$337
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 37¢ | 40¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 78¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 84% +$228
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? | Yes | 5¢ | 3¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 17¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 19¢ | 23¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Yes | 58¢ | 57¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Yes | 19¢ | 20¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 12¢ | 1¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | Yes | 31¢ | 30¢ | +$3 | win |
Economy 50% +$52
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 26¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$75 | win |
Geopolitics 89% +$37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 9¢ | +$2 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 30¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | Yes | 54¢ | 54¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 5¢ | +$10 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 72¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | +$4 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 78¢ | 78¢ | +$6 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 58¢ | 93¢ | +$8 | win |
Crypto 60% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | Yes | 49¢ | 49¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Yes | 16¢ | 21¢ | +$3 | win |
Culture 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | Yes | 51¢ | 55¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 62¢ | +$1 | win |
Mentions 50% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? | No | 93.7¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | $112 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? | No | 94.5¢ | 92¢ | $-2 | $248 | 17/04/2026 |
| Barstool After Dark: Will the crew bowl a 300? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | $66 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $121 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 24.7¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $91 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 9.5¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $41 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $29 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? | Yes | 58.8¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $37 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? | Yes | 35.9¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $90 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 1¢ | +$5 | $203 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | $302 | 12/04/2026 |
| BitBoy convicted? | Yes | 71.6¢ | 0¢ | +$241 | $1,778 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 18¢ | +$1 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? | Yes | 2.9¢ | 4¢ | +$67 | $34 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? | Yes | 7.4¢ | 24¢ | +$61 | $47 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? | Yes | 16.1¢ | 24¢ | +$45 | $88 | 31/12/2025 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 21¢ | +$3 | $48 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 3¢ | +$100 | $63 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 6¢ | +$8 | $106 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$75 | $525 | 29/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 93¢ | +$8 | $58 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 78¢ | +$6 | $234 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 48¢ | +$3 | $24 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 2¢ | $-7 | $54 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 5.9¢ | 6¢ | +$5 | $365 | 16/05/2026 |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 5.2¢ | 6¢ | +$4 | $156 | 16/05/2026 |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 3.9¢ | 7¢ | +$2 | $58 | 16/05/2026 |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 3.5¢ | 3¢ | +$2 | $52 | 16/05/2026 |
| Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | Yes | 30.6¢ | 30¢ | +$3 | $103 | 18/05/2026 |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 49¢ | +$16 | $100 | 24/05/2026 |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 60¢ | +$5 | $529 | 26/05/2026 |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 40¢ | $-16 | $392 | 26/05/2026 |
| Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? | Yes | 74.0¢ | 57¢ | +$3 | $64 | 27/05/2026 |
| Will Burnley be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? | Yes | 97.1¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $26 | 27/05/2026 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 40¢ | +$0 | $29 | 27/05/2026 |
| Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $91 | 27/05/2026 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 60¢ | $-1 | $215 | 27/05/2026 |
| Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $31 | 28/05/2026 |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $94 | 28/05/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | $23 | 30/05/2026 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $100 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 34¢ | +$3 | $100 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 72¢ | +$2 | $45 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 3.7¢ | 12¢ | +$0 | $26 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 28¢ | +$0 | $100 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $100 | 31/05/2026 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 2¢ | $-0 | $29 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 26¢ | $-5 | $100 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 8¢ | +$385 | $538 | 07/06/2026 |